Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) - Due Diligence

hourglass

Loading…

Preparing the latest DD data, styles and content.

62OpportunityDD: May 29, 2026Analyst: 58

paidPrice at analysis date

USD 8.91 (29/05/2026)

domainMkt cap

$570M

pie_chartShares

64.0M

candlestick_chart52W

$6.06-$14.51

trending_downShort interest

12%

MEDIUMNASDAQHealth Care315 employeesFounded 2013

Verdict: SPECULATIVE — Asymmetric / Net-cash floor

Stock trades AT/BELOW post-Rigel net cash per share (~$10.27 vs $8.91). Market is pricing the pipeline at ZERO after the Sep-2025 vepdegestrant Phase 3 reset and 15% restructuring. First-PROTAC FDA approval (VEPPANU, May-1) + $42.5M Rigel upfront + 50% royalty stream on a global commercial drug have not been re-priced in. Pipeline (ARV-806 KRAS G12D, ARV-393 BCL6) is true call option. Burn risk remains, but runway to 2H-2028 buys time.

📊 DIANALITICS RESEARCH INDEXCompany & Thesis Assessment Score /100 — updated 2026-05-29

Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)

Biotech / PROTAC degraders · NASDAQ · New Haven, CT

"Below-cash optionality on first commercial PROTAC + KRAS G12D readout, but with material clinical and burn risk."

Cash floor > mkt cap First PROTAC commercial Pfizer/Rigel partners High cash burn Pipeline binary risk

Fin. strength

/20 pts

EBITDA/FCF

/15 pts

Debt/leverage

/15 pts

Stage/business

/15 pts

Catalysts

/10 pts

Reg. risk

/8 pts

Risk/reward

/7 pts

Management

/5 pts

Sector/macro

/3 pts

Compliance

/2 pts

💡 Fair Value Estimate — Cash-floor + rNPV (royalty + pipeline option)

Fair value base case

USD 13.5

Range: USD 7.00-USD 22.0

Price at analysis date: USD 8.91 (29/05/2026)

Base upside/downside: +52%

Methodology: Probability-weighted FV = 0.25×$22 + 0.50×$13.5 + 0.25×$6 = $5.50 + $6.75 + $1.50 = $13.75 — base case rounded to $13.50 reflects 10% execution haircut. Bull weight elevated vs typical biotech (15%) because the floor is uncommonly hard: a real-world commercial PROTAC + cash > market cap. Bear weight balanced because clinical-stage assets remain genuinely risky. ⚠️ Not investment advice.

Component	Assumption	USD/share
Cash & securities Q1-2026	$614.9M / 64.0M sh.	+9.61
Rigel upfront (post-Q1)	50% × $85M = $42.5M / 64.0M sh.	+0.66
2026-2028 burn (NPV)	~$200M/yr × 2.5 yr × 0.85 discount = $425M / 64.0M sh.	−6.64
VEPPANU royalty stream rNPV	50% × ($200M peak sales × 12% tiered royalty × 8yr) × 50% PoS, 10% WACC	+4.20
VEPPANU regulatory/milestone	50% × $320M × 35% PoS, undiscounted, / 64.0M sh.	+0.88
ARV-806 (KRAS G12D) option	15% PoS × $1.5B peak NPV / 64.0M sh.	+3.52
ARV-393 (BCL6 NHL) option	10% PoS × $800M peak NPV / 64.0M sh.	+1.25
Neuro pipeline (ARV-102, ARV-027)	5% blended PoS × $500M / 64.0M sh.	+0.39
Risk discount & rounding	−10% on pipeline options (execution/dilution overhang)	−0.37
FV base case	Sum: 9.61 + 0.66 − 6.64 + 4.20 + 0.88 + 3.52 + 1.25 + 0.39 − 0.37 = 13.50	≈ $13.50

Bull

$20-24

Probability: 25%

VEPPANU global launch beats: $400M+ peak sales. ARV-806 KRAS G12D shows differentiated efficacy in 2H-2026 data. M&A premium from a big-pharma PROTAC platform acquirer. Re-rating to commercial-stage multiple.

Base

USD 12.0-USD 15.0

Probability: 50%

VEPPANU launch tracks $150-200M peak, royalty stream materializes. ARV-806 / ARV-393 generate signal but no de-risking. Cash burn stays controlled. Re-rate to ~1.4x EV/Cash + option value.

Bear

$5-7

Probability: 25%

VEPPANU underperforms ($<100M peak), Rigel writes off. ARV-806 KRAS data disappoints, ARV-393 stalls. Burn accelerates, dilutive raise becomes likely. Stock trends to residual cash net of dilution.

Methodology: Methodology: Probability-weighted FV = 0.25×$22 + 0.50×$13.5 + 0.25×$6 = $5.50 + $6.75 + $1.50 = $13.75 — base case rounded to $13.50 reflects 10% execution haircut. Bull weight elevated vs typical biotech (15%) because the floor is uncommonly hard: a real-world commercial PROTAC + cash > market cap. Bear weight balanced because clinical-stage assets remain genuinely risky. ⚠️ Not investment advice. Not investment advice.

check_circle

✅ Recent material catalysts (last 30 days)

May 1, 2026: FDA approved VEPPANU (vepdegestrant) for ER+/HER2-, ESR1-mutated metastatic breast cancer — first FDA-approved PROTAC. Triggered $50M milestone from Pfizer. May 12, 2026: Arvinas + Pfizer licensed exclusive global commercial rights of VEPPANU to Rigel Pharmaceuticals for $85M upfront ($42.5M to ARVN) + up to $320M in development/regulatory/commercial milestones + tiered royalties (split 50/50 between ARVN and Pfizer).

⚠️ Methodology note: Clinical-stage biotech valued via cash-floor + risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) on royalty stream and pipeline assets. EV/Revenue meaningless given collaboration-payment driven topline distortion (Q1-2025 had $188.8M one-time recognition). Floor anchor: Q1-2026 cash & securities + post-Q1 cash inflows − projected burn.

📊 Capital Structure · Short Interest · Buyback & Dilution

🟡 Short Interest

~12%

~7.7M shares short on 64M outstanding (Apr-2026 NASDAQ data). Moderate — reflects skepticism on burn/pipeline. Not at squeeze levels.

🟢 Share dilution (1Y)

+1.5%

From 63.0M to 64.0M shares — minimal dilution. Cause: equity comp + minor ATM use. No major raise in last 12 months.

🔴 Buyback

No buyback program. Cash earmarked for pipeline development. Capital allocation priority: ARV-806/ARV-393 trials, debt-free balance sheet.

Short Interest — context

ARVN — 12.0%

12.0%

Insider transactions ultimi 12 mesi: no material insider selling >$500K reported on Form 4. CEO John Houston and CFO Andrew Saik have not been net sellers in 12M. Mild positive signal in a battered biotech.

$Financial analysis — FY 2026

Cash & securities Q1-2026

$614.9M

+$42.5M Rigel post-Q1 → ~$657M effective

Q1-2026 net loss

−$57.6M

vs +$82.9M Q1-25 (collab payment effect)

Cash runway

Into 2H-2028

~10 quarters at current burn

Net cash per share

~$10.27

vs $8.91 stock — trading 15% BELOW cash

Item ($M)	FY23	FY24	FY25	Q1-26	FY26E
Total revenue	78.5	266.0	319.4	15.6	~150-200E
R&D expense	−329.6	−362.7	−341.2	−60.3	~−230 to −250
G&A expense	−85.3	−105.5	−96.2	−19.1	~−75
Net income (loss)	−269.4	−154.0	−110.5	−57.6	~−180 to −220
Cash & securities (EoP)	1,099	954	714	615	~450-500

Revenue volatility is collaboration-payment driven (Pfizer milestones, Novartis termination). FY25 included $50M Pfizer milestone; FY26 includes another $50M VEPPANU approval milestone (Q2-26) + $42.5M Rigel upfront (Q2-26). Recurring "operational" revenue is essentially zero pre-royalty stream.

Quarterly dynamics — last 5 quarters
Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026
Revenue ($M)	188.8	54.3	42.1	34.2	15.6
R&D ($M)	−90.8	−88.4	−82.1	−79.9	−60.3
Net loss ($M)	+82.9	−68.5	−71.3	−53.6	−57.6
End-of-period cash ($M)	1,041	910	825	714	615

Financial position and sustainability

Cash runway (years)

~2.5 yr

Net cash / market cap

~115%

R&D opex reduction YoY

−34% Q1

Headcount cut (Sep-2025)

−15%

account_tree

Business model — PROTAC platform + royalty stream

Arvinas is the pioneer of PROTAC (PROteolysis TArgeting Chimeras) — a new drug modality that uses bifunctional molecules to recruit the cell's own protein-degradation machinery to eliminate disease-causing proteins, including targets considered "undruggable" by traditional small molecules.

VEPPANU (vepdegestrant) — first FDA-approved PROTAC in history (May-2026) — validates the platform commercially. Co-developed with Pfizer; out-licensed to Rigel for global commercialization. Arvinas retains 50% economics. Pipeline now focused on three high-value optionalities: ARV-806 (KRAS G12D solid tumors), ARV-393 (BCL6 NHL/DLBCL), and ARV-102 (LRRK2 Parkinson's). Restructured Sep-2025 to extend runway and re-focus capital.

VEPPANU (vepdegestrant) $5-15M FY26E royalty (50% × 12% × launch ramp) 🟢 commercial launch First-PROTAC FDA approval May-2026 (ER+/HER2- ESR1-mut breast cancer). Rigel commercialization. Peak addressable: ~$200-400M. ARVN gets 50% of royalties + 50% of $320M milestones. ARV-806 (KRAS G12D) Pre-revenue — Ph1 escalation 🟡 data readout 2H-2026 First-in-class PROTAC degrader of KRAS G12D — mutation in ~25% pancreatic, 13% colorectal. Differentiated vs Mirati/Amgen inhibitors. Once-weekly dosing achieved. Peak potential $1-2B. ARV-393 (BCL6 NHL) Pre-revenue — Ph1 combo trial 🟡 data possible ASH 2026 BCL6 degrader for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. Combination with glofitamab initiated. Early responses observed at sub-effective doses. Highly differentiated MoA. Peak potential $500-800M. ARV-102 (LRRK2 Parkinson's) Pre-revenue — Ph1 🟡 data presented Mar-2026 First CNS PROTAC. LRRK2 degrader for Parkinson's disease. Crosses blood-brain barrier — major technical achievement. Long path to market but optionality embedded for free. ARV-027 (Kennedy's disease) Pre-revenue — Ph1 🟡 orphan/rare Androgen receptor degrader for spinal-bulbar muscular atrophy. Rare disease — potential orphan pricing premium. Smaller commercial opportunity but de-risked regulatory path. Platform / preclinical Pre-revenue — research 🟡 pan-KRAS + others Pan-KRAS degrader (ARV-6723), additional undisclosed programs. Platform optionality for future BD deals — Pfizer collaboration framework intact.

gavel

Legal, regulatory and risk analysis

Cash burn / dilution risk

Moderate

Runway to 2H-2028 at current burn ~$200M/yr. If pipeline doesn't de-risk by 2027, dilutive raise likely. Current pricing reflects this fear — but management has already cut 15% headcount and reduced R&D −34% QoQ.

VEPPANU commercial flop

Moderate

Rigel must execute launch into competitive ER+/HER2- segment. ESR1-mut population is narrow (~30-40% of patients post-CDK4/6 progression). Failure to hit $100M+ peak sales would write down royalty stream contribution to FV.

ARV-806 clinical failure

High (binary)

KRAS G12D is contested territory (Revolution Medicines, BMS, Mirati). Single-arm Ph1 data 2H-2026 must show differentiated efficacy or durability. Negative data removes ~$3.50/share of option value.

ARV-393 BCL6 data risk

Moderate

DLBCL+glofitamab combination data possible at ASH 2026 (Dec). Crowded NHL landscape (T-cell engagers, CAR-Ts). Early responses encouraging but small sample. Worth ~$1.25/share at base PoS.

Pfizer partnership dynamics

Moderate

Pfizer downsizing in oncology BD post-Seagen integration. Risk that Pfizer steps back from VEPPANU support or future ARVN options. Mitigated by 50/50 economics: Pfizer keeps skin in the game.

Hard cash floor

Positive

$10.27/share post-Rigel cash & securities, debt-free. Market cap $570M vs net cash $657M = trading 13% BELOW liquid assets. Floor is unusually anchored vs typical clinical-stage biotech.

First-PROTAC validation

Positive

VEPPANU FDA approval validates the entire PROTAC modality — first time targeted protein degradation has cleared regulatory bar. De-risks ARVN's broader platform and increases optionality on M&A from a big-pharma platform acquirer.

Litigation / governance

Low

No active class action, SEC investigation, or short-seller report identified in last 12 months. Restructuring announced Sep-2025 was orderly. No CFO/CEO turnover. No shelf utilization above standard $300M ATM filing.

article

SWOT analysis

Strengths

+First-in-class PROTAC platform with validated commercial drug (VEPPANU)
+$615M cash + $42.5M Rigel upfront, debt-free → 2.5+ year runway
+Stock trades 13% BELOW net cash per share — hard floor
+Pfizer + Rigel partnerships de-risk commercial execution
+Multiple shots on goal: ARV-806, ARV-393, ARV-102, ARV-027

Weaknesses

−$200M+ annual cash burn — runway clock is ticking
−Revenue is collaboration-payment driven, lumpy and not recurring
−Vepdegestrant addressable market narrower than initially priced
−No buyback / capital return — diluted by equity comp
−Lost ~85% from 2023 highs — broken stock with no natural buyer base

Opportunities

→ARV-806 KRAS G12D Phase 1 data readout 2H-2026 — potential re-rate
→ARV-393 BCL6 data possible at ASH 2026 (December)
→M&A premium from PROTAC platform acquirer (Pfizer, AstraZeneca, BMS)
→VEPPANU label expansion to earlier-line ESR1-WT settings
→Sector rotation into beaten-down biotech as M&A activity recovers

Threats

!Competitive KRAS G12D landscape (Revolution Medicines, BMS, Mirati)
!FDA scrutiny on novel modalities post-FDA leadership changes 2026
!Biotech XBI/IBB sentiment relapse → dilutive raise priced punitively
!Pfizer further reducing oncology BD commitment
!Generic competition / biosimilar pressure on Rigel commercial ramp

article

Summary by assessment area

🟢 Financial risk — LOW

Cash & securities $657M post-Rigel
Net cash per share $10.27 > stock $8.91
Debt-free balance sheet
Runway into 2H-2028

🟡 Operational risk — MEDIUM

$200M annual burn — needs trimming or BD
VEPPANU commercial in Rigel hands
3 pipeline binaries in next 12-18 months
Post-restructuring execution unproven

🟢 Valuation — DISLOCATED

Trading 13% below net cash — anomalous
Pipeline implied value: ZERO at current price
Base FV $13.50 → +51.5% upside
Asymmetry ratio: ~2.6x (downside −22% / upside +57%)

2026-06-30 product

VEPPANU US commercial launch (Rigel)

short-term Impact: High Direction: Bullish

First commercial sales of first-PROTAC drug. ARVN gets 50% of tiered royalties. Initial launch script trajectory will set royalty NPV anchor for the next 12 months.

2026-08-06 earnings

Q2 2026 Earnings Release

short-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

First quarter with Rigel $42.5M upfront + Pfizer $50M VEPPANU approval milestone. Cash position should jump materially. Updated pipeline guidance and burn cadence post-restructuring.

2026-09-30 regulatory

ARV-806 KRAS G12D Phase 1 data update

medium-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

Phase 1 dose escalation completed ahead of schedule. Efficacy/durability data at ESMO or similar venue in Q3-Q4 2026 will determine whether ARV-806 supports the $1-2B peak opportunity baked into bull case.

2026-12-08 product

ARV-393 BCL6 + glofitamab data (ASH 2026)

medium-term Impact: Medium Direction: Binary

DLBCL combination data at American Society of Hematology meeting (December). Early responses observed at sub-effective doses — efficacy depth and durability are the key readouts. Could unlock NHL franchise narrative.

2026-11-30 partnership

VEPPANU first regulatory/sales milestone (Rigel)

medium-term Impact: Medium Direction: Bullish

Of the up-to-$320M Rigel milestones, ARVN gets 50%. EU approval filing or first commercial milestone trigger likely 2H-2026 / 1H-2027. Each milestone adds ~$0.50-1.00 to per-share value.

2026-11-05 earnings

Q3 2026 Earnings Release

medium-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

First quarter with VEPPANU commercial sales contribution. Royalty run-rate first signal. Pipeline progress update on ARV-806 and ARV-393 prior to year-end data drops.

2027-06-30 ma

Potential M&A approach by big-pharma PROTAC acquirer

long-term Impact: High Direction: Bullish

First-PROTAC validation + KRAS G12D positive data could make ARVN a strategic target. Trading below cash + pipeline option = compelling tuck-in. Pfizer, AstraZeneca, BMS are logical acquirers. Premium scenario 2x current price.

Sources & Disclaimer

Sources: Arvinas Q1 2026 8-K and 10-Q (SEC); Arvinas Q4 2025 8-K; Arvinas IR releases (VEPPANU FDA approval May 1, 2026; Rigel transaction May 12, 2026); FiercePharma, BioPharmaDive, Globe Newswire, StockTitan May 2026 coverage; Yahoo Finance / CNN Markets / StockAnalysis price quotes. Market data — last verified close 2026-05-28: ARVN $8.91 (cross-checked Yahoo Finance pre-market quote referencing previous close + recent intraday trajectory $9.04 pre-market 2026-05-29), 52-week range $6.06–$14.51, ~64.0M shares outstanding, market cap ~$571-583M, short interest ~12%. Cash & securities $614.9M (Q1-2026) + $42.5M Rigel upfront (post-Q1). ⚠️ This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.