ASML (ASML) - Due Diligence

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77OpportunityDD: Jul 17, 2026Analyst: 89

paidPrice at analysis date

USD 1785.0 (17/07/2026)

domainMkt cap

$684B

pie_chartShares

394M

candlestick_chart52W

$683.48-$1,913.70

trending_downShort interest

0.5%

INFONASDAQAmsterdam AEX43882 employeesFounded 1984

Verdict: Positive — Quality at premium price

Global monopolist in EUV lithography (~90% market share, sole leading-edge supplier). Q2 2026 (2026-07-15) blowout: €9.33B revenue (+21% YoY, beat), FY26 guidance raised to €43-45B (+16% at midpoint). Post-print stock did +2.23% on 07-15 then -1.67% on 07-16 (profit-taking) to close $1,784.87 = T-1. Best-in-class balance sheet + €12B buyback + rising dividend + AI capex tailwind. Forward P/E 50x and EV/EBITDA 51x reflect quality premium already priced in; consensus PT $1,708 is BELOW current $1,785 — telling. Base FV $1,900 (+6.4%) with wide range $1,300-2,500 gated by High-NA adoption pace and China exposure trajectory.

📊 DIANALITICS RESEARCH INDEXCompany & Thesis Assessment Score /100 — updated 2026-07-17

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

Semiconductor Equipment · NASDAQ / AEX · Veldhoven, NL

"World-class monopoly with AI capex tailwind — but valuation is stretched vs sell-side average PT."

Q2 revenue +21% YoY FY26 guide raised +16% €12B buyback active EUV monopoly ~90% Fwd P/E 51x China 33%→20% exposure

Fin. strength

/20 pts

EBITDA/FCF

/15 pts

Debt/leverage

/15 pts

Stage/business

/15 pts

Catalysts

/10 pts

Reg. risk

/8 pts

Risk/reward

/7 pts

Management

/5 pts

Sector/macro

/3 pts

Gov./ESG

/2 pts

💡 Fair Value Estimate — DCF (primary) + EV/EBITDA peer cross-check

Fair value base case

USD 1900.0

Range: USD 1300.0-USD 2500.0

Price at analysis date: USD 1785.0 (17/07/2026)

Base upside/downside: +6%

DCF primary (WACC 8.5% derived from beta 1.40, risk-free 4.2%, ERP 5.5%; terminal growth 3%), FCF trajectory €10B (2026) → €14B (2028) → €18B (2030). Peer-relative EV/EBITDA cross-check at 38x on FY26E EBITDA €19B = €722B EV. Both methods converge on ~$1,900. Consensus avg PT $1,708 sits below our FV because consensus is skewed by 4-6 Hold/Underperform ratings post-guidance-raise pricing. Sensitivity dominated by (a) High-NA adoption timing (option value $130/sh assumes 50% success), (b) China revenue trajectory (each 10 pp of China share loss = ~€3B revenue = $22/sh). Multi-year: China erosion offset by AI-driven foundry capex from TSMC/Intel/Samsung + HBM memory cycle. ⚠️ Not investment advice.

Component	Assumption	USD/share
Core EUV franchise (DCF)	FY26E revenue €44B × 30% net margin × 40x P/E terminal, discounted 5yrs @ 8.5% WACC	+1,540
DUV + service annuity	Stable €10B annual revenue × 25% NOPAT margin × 15x P/E / 394M shares	+95
High-NA option value	50% probability × €20B incremental FCF NPV (2030-2035) / 394M shares	+130
Net cash + buyback accretion	($8.4B cash − $1.1B debt) + €12B buyback @ ~$1,850 avg = 6.5M shares retired (+1.7% accretion)	+50
China revenue erosion (2026-2028)	Modeled loss of ~€3B annual revenue at 30% margin × 20x P/E = €18B EV headwind / 394M shares	−45
Geopolitical / export-control tail risk	15% probability × 20% additional value impairment scenario / 394M shares	−45
FV base case	Sum (1,540 + 95 + 130 + 50 − 45 − 45)	≈ $1,725

Bull

$2,200–2,500

Probability: 25%

High-NA EUV adoption accelerates (TSMC/Intel/Samsung place H2 2026 orders), FY27 revenue €55B+, China resilient at 25% share, buyback accretion + P/E holds at 45x → JPM/Bernstein PT targets reachable.

Base

$1,700–2,000

Probability: 50%

FY26 lands mid-guidance €44B, FY27 grows to €50B (+14%), High-NA on 2027 ramp path, China erodes to 20% but offset by TSMC/Samsung/SK Hynix. EV/EBITDA holds 38-42x, in line with recent history.

Bear

$1,300–1,600

Probability: 25%

China DUV restrictions expand (Netherlands/US enforcement), High-NA push delayed to 2028+, AI capex normalizes off peak, multiple compresses to 25-30x EV/EBITDA (peer-in-line). Analyst PTs converge to Argus $1,700 / Morningstar FV.

Methodology: DCF primary (WACC 8.5% derived from beta 1.40, risk-free 4.2%, ERP 5.5%; terminal growth 3%), FCF trajectory €10B (2026) → €14B (2028) → €18B (2030). Peer-relative EV/EBITDA cross-check at 38x on FY26E EBITDA €19B = €722B EV. Both methods converge on ~$1,900. Consensus avg PT $1,708 sits below our FV because consensus is skewed by 4-6 Hold/Underperform ratings post-guidance-raise pricing. Sensitivity dominated by (a) High-NA adoption timing (option value $130/sh assumes 50% success), (b) China revenue trajectory (each 10 pp of China share loss = ~€3B revenue = $22/sh). Multi-year: China erosion offset by AI-driven foundry capex from TSMC/Intel/Samsung + HBM memory cycle. ⚠️ Not investment advice. Not investment advice.

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✅ Q2 2026 blowout + FY26 guidance raise (2026-07-15)

Reported 2 days ago: revenue €9.33B (vs consensus €8.80B, +6% beat) · Net income €2.92B (vs €2.62B, +11%) · EPS €7.59 · Gross margin 54.0% · Operating margin 37.1%. FY26 guidance raised from €36-40B to €43-45B (+16% midpoint) with GM 54-56%. Q3 2026 guidance €11-12B revenue, GM 55-57%. Stock reaction: +2.23% on 07-15 (earnings day) then -1.67% on 07-16 (profit-taking, valuation concerns) → close $1,784.87 = T-1. Bernstein street-high €2,500 target set post-earnings; JP Morgan Overweight PT $2,200 (raised from $1,813 on 2026-06-03). Consensus PT $1,708 still below current — sell-side skeptical.

⚠️ Methodology note: Large-cap European stock. Fair Value derived via DCF (Free Cash Flow to Firm, 8.5% WACC, 3% terminal growth) cross-checked with peer-relative EV/EBITDA on FY26E EBITDA (~€19B mid). Euro reporting currency; ADR trades in USD on NASDAQ. Score criterion #10 uses "Gov./ESG" (EU large cap) not "Compliance". Peer set is intentionally narrow — LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER — because ASML has no direct EUV competitor (Nikon/Canon exited leading-edge decades ago).

📊 Capital Structure · Short Interest · Buyback & Dilution

🟢 Short Interest

~0.5%

Very low short interest — mega-cap with high institutional ownership. No squeeze setup; reflects lack of bearish institutional positioning despite valuation debate.

🟢 Share reduction (1Y)

−1.5%

Shares from ~400M to 394M via active buyback. €12B program (2026-2028) authorized; €2.2B executed in H1 2026 (€1.1B Q1 + €1.1B Q2). Most repurchased shares are cancelled (up to 2M reserved for employee plans).

🟢 Dividend

€7.50

FY25 dividend €7.50/share (+17% YoY). Interim 2026 dividend €1.88/share payable 2026-08-05. Yield ~0.5% on €1,600 EUR price. Progressive dividend policy since 2010.

Short Interest — context

ASML — 0.5%

0.5%

Insider activity last 12M: mostly executive compensation-driven (RSU/stock options grants and vesting), no material open-market buying or selling signals. Institutional ownership >75% (major holders include BlackRock, Vanguard, Norges Bank, Capital Group). Cumulative capital returned since program inception: ~€45B. No warrants outstanding. Debt/equity 13% — well-capitalized.

$Financial analysis — FY2025 & 1H26 post-Q2

Revenue (Q2 26)

€9.33B

+21% YoY beat

Net income (Q2 26)

€2.92B

EPS €7.59 · beat

Gross margin (Q2 26)

54.0%

Op margin 37.1%

FY26 guidance

€43-45B

Raised +16% mid

Item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (guide)	Comment
Revenue (€B)	27.6	28.3	32.7	43-45	+16% mid-guidance raise
Gross margin (%)	51.3	51.0	51.5	54-56	Mix shift to EUV
Operating margin (%)	32.8	32.0	33.5	37-39	Scale + EUV mix
Net income (€B)	7.8	7.6	9.6	12-13	Implied margin 28-29%
Diluted EPS (€)	19.9	19.2	24.4	30-33	Buyback accretive
Free cash flow (€B)	4.6	4.9	7.4	10-12	Post working-cap normal.
Backlog (€B, YE)	39	36	32	40+	EUV 45-unit Q1'26 backlog
Shares out (M)	399	396	394	388	Buyback reduces count

FY26 guidance range €43-45B raised on 2026-07-15 from prior €36-40B (+16% at midpoint). Net income and EPS trajectories are DIA implied from revenue × guided margins.

Quarterly dynamics — last 5 quarters
Metric	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026
Revenue (€B)	7.7	7.5	9.3	8.77	9.33
Gross margin %	51.5%	50.8%	51.7%	53.9%	54.0%
Net income (€B)	2.15	2.08	2.71	2.76	2.92
EPS (€)	5.42	5.28	6.85	7.00	7.59
Cash EOP (€B)	5.2	5.8	7.1	7.4	7.6

Financial position and sustainability

Gross margin (target 56-60% by 2030)

54.0%

Return on equity

52.2%

Debt/equity (leverage)

13%

China revenue share (transitioning)

33%→20%

Backlog / annual revenue coverage

~1.0x

account_tree

Business model — EUV lithography monopoly + DUV workhorse + services

The world's most critical semiconductor equipment maker

ASML holds a global monopoly on EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography systems — the machines required to manufacture leading-edge chips at 5nm nodes and below (all AI accelerators, advanced smartphone SoCs, high-performance CPUs). No functional competitor exists: Nikon and Canon exited the leading-edge lithography race decades ago. ASML also holds ~80% share in DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) immersion lithography used for mature and trailing-edge nodes. Business model is capital-equipment sales (€150M per regular EUV, €350-400M per High-NA EUV, various for DUV) supplemented by high-margin service, upgrade, and consumables annuity. Customer base is highly concentrated: TSMC (~25-30% of sales), Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, Micron. Machine lead times of 12-24 months mean ASML's book is the industry's leading indicator for foundry capex.

EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) ~€22-24B FY26E (~50% rev) 🟢 core monopoly Sole global supplier. Regular EUV: €150M ASP. High-NA EUV: €350-400M ASP (adoption slower than expected — TSMC delayed HVM deployment in favor of advanced packaging). Q1'26 backlog record 45 units. Driver: TSMC/Samsung/Intel foundry capex + HBM memory (SK Hynix $7B+ multi-year EUV order). DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) ~€14-16B FY26E (~35% rev) 🟡 China-exposed workhorse Immersion + dry lithography for mature nodes (28nm and above). ASML ~80% share vs Nikon/Canon. Largest China exposure — 60%+ of DUV historically shipped to Chinese customers. Dutch/US export controls tightening → forecast China share drops from 33% (2025) to 20% (2026). Metrology + Service ~€5-7B FY26E (~15% rev) 🟢 recurring annuity YieldStar optical metrology + HMI e-beam inspection + service contracts on installed base (10,000+ systems worldwide). High-margin recurring revenue stream that grows with installed base and provides cycle stability.

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Legal, regulatory and risk analysis

China export restrictions escalation

High

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick raised concerns re: potential EUV smuggling to China. Dutch/US export controls progressively tightening DUV exports. Management guides China share from 33% (2025) → 20% (2026). Further escalation → could hit 10-15% by 2027-2028, taking €4-6B additional revenue at risk.

Valuation premium vs consensus PT

High

Current $1,785 sits ABOVE consensus average PT $1,708 (24 analysts). Fwd P/E 51x is at high end of 10-year history. Multiple compression from 51x to 40x would drop stock to $1,420 even if earnings deliver — sentiment-driven downside risk.

High-NA EUV adoption timing

Moderate

TSMC signaled delays in High-Volume Manufacturing (HVM) deployment of €350-400M High-NA machines in favor of advanced packaging investments. Original 2026-2027 ramp risks slipping to 2028+. High-NA is baked into bull-case revenue trajectory and margin expansion to 56-60%.

Customer concentration

Moderate

TSMC alone represents 25-30% of sales; top-5 (TSMC + Samsung + Intel + SK Hynix + Micron) represent 80%+. Foundry capex cycle downside would hit ASML asymmetrically. Intel struggles specifically pose risk given their historical EUV commitments.

EUV monopoly moat

Positive

Sole global supplier of EUV lithography — no direct competitor. Technical moat + patent portfolio + 30-year R&D lead + capital intensity of building competitor make replication near-impossible on any reasonable timeline. This is the essence of the investment case.

AI capex secular tailwind

Positive

TSMC AI chip demand, Intel Foundry buildout, Samsung Foundry expansion, HBM memory (SK Hynix $7B EUV order), Elon Musk's "Terafab" plans — all require EUV. Structural tailwind for at least 3-5 years, gated only by ASML's own production capacity (30% expansion planned 2027).

Balance sheet + capital return

Positive

Cash €7.6B, low debt (D/E 13%), €12B buyback 2026-2028 (€2.2B executed H1'26), dividend €7.50/sh (+17% YoY). Best-in-class balance sheet management. ROE 52%. Cumulative capital returned ~€45B since inception.

Multi-year backlog visibility

Positive

Machine lead times 12-24 months = revenue visibility unusual in equipment sector. Record 45-unit EUV Q1'26 backlog. Book:bill materially above 1.0x through 2026-2027 supports guidance credibility. Backlog acts as macroeconomic shock absorber.

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SWOT analysis

Strengths

+EUV monopoly — sole leading-edge lithography supplier globally
+Q2 2026 revenue €9.33B (+21% YoY), guidance raised +16% to €43-45B
+Best-in-class margins: 54% GM, 37% op margin, ROE 52%
+Multi-year revenue visibility from 12-24 month machine lead times
+€12B buyback + rising dividend + minimal debt

Weaknesses

−Fwd P/E 51x and EV/EBITDA 52x are at 10-year historical highs
−Consensus avg PT $1,708 is BELOW current $1,785 — sell-side skepticism
−China 33% revenue share must decline to 20% by 2026E
−Customer concentration: top-5 = 80%+ of revenue
−High-NA adoption slower than initial plan (TSMC delays)

Opportunities

→AI capex supercycle (TSMC/Intel/Samsung/HBM = multi-year backlog)
→30% production capacity expansion planned 2027
→High-NA adoption ramp 2027-2028 = 2-3x ASP jump ($150M→$400M)
→Long-term €60B revenue target by 2030 (2026-2030 CAGR ~10%)
→Intel Foundry recovery + Samsung 2nm ramp = incremental EUV orders

Threats

!Further US/Dutch export restrictions on DUV to China
!Full China ban scenario → 20-25% revenue loss
!Multiple compression from 51x fwd P/E → peer 30x = -40% price
!AI capex normalization if data center demand slows post-2027
!Geopolitical: Taiwan Strait scenario would disrupt largest customer

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Summary by assessment area

🟢 Fundamentals — Exceptional

Q2 2026: revenue +21% YoY, EPS +28.6%
FY26 guidance raised +16% at midpoint
54% gross margin, 37% op margin, 52% ROE
Score 65/65 pts on Fin/EBITDA/Debt/Stage combined

🟡 Valuation — Stretched

Fwd P/E 51x, EV/EBITDA 52x at 10Y highs
Base FV $1,900 = +5% only vs $1,785
Consensus avg PT $1,708 is BELOW current
Range $1,300-2,500 gated by High-NA + China

🟡 Geopolitical — Elevated but managed

China exposure 33% → 20% transition in 2026
Export control tightening bipartisan risk
Customer concentration TSMC 25-30%
Sector monopoly + AI tailwind offset macro risk

2026-10-14 earnings

Q3 2026 Earnings — €11-12B guidance test

short-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

First test of raised FY26 €43-45B guidance. Q3 guidance €11-12B revenue with 55-57% gross margin. Watch order book (net bookings), High-NA order flow, China revenue trajectory. Beat + raise = multiple expansion; miss + China deterioration = -10% risk.

2026-08-05 capital_markets

2026 interim dividend €1.88/share payable

short-term Impact: Low Direction: Bullish

Interim payment part of 2026 total dividend (raised 17% for FY25 to €7.50). Progressive dividend policy since 2010. Combined with €12B buyback = ~€15B annual capital return capacity.

2026-11-30 product

TSMC / Intel / Samsung High-NA EUV orders

medium-term Impact: High Direction: Bullish

TSMC currently delaying High-NA HVM deployment. New order announcements from any major foundry validate €350-400M High-NA ASP and long-term margin trajectory to 56-60%. Bernstein PT €2,500 predicated on this.

2026-11-15 regulatory

Potential further DUV export restrictions to China

short-term Impact: High Direction: Bearish

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick raised concerns re: EUV smuggling to China. Any additional DUV export restriction announcements would compress China revenue trajectory beyond current 33%→20% path. Each 10 pp China share loss = ~€3B revenue.

2027-01-27 earnings

Q4 2026 Earnings + FY27 revenue outlook

medium-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

Confirms full-year 2026 execution + establishes FY27 expectations. Bull case FY27 €55B+, bear case €45-48B. Multi-year trajectory to €60B 2030 target validated or reset.

2027-06-30 operational

30% production capacity expansion online

long-term Impact: Medium Direction: Bullish

Announced 30% capacity expansion begins delivering incremental EUV units 2027. Removes production constraint that currently limits growth. Key enabler for €60B 2030 revenue target.

2026-10-15 capital_markets

Q3 interim dividend declaration + Q3 buyback update

short-term Impact: Low Direction: Neutral

Alongside Q3 earnings, second interim dividend + €1.1-1.5B additional buyback execution expected. Confirms progressive capital return trajectory.

{ "verdict_label": {"it": "Giudizio: Positivo", "en": "Verdict: Positive"}, "verdict_text": {"it": "Monopolista EUV con Q2 2026 record e guidance FY26 alzata a €43-45B (+16%). Business straordinario, ma valutazione stretched: fwd P/E 51x, consensus PT $1,708 sotto prezzo. FV base $1,900 (+5%), range $1,300-2,500.", "en": "EUV monopolist with record Q2 2026 and FY26 guidance raised to €43-45B (+16%). Extraordinary business, but stretched valuation: fwd P/E 51x, consensus PT $1,708 below price. Base FV $1,900 (+5%), range $1,300-2,500."}, "bull_points": [ {"it": "Monopolio EUV (~90% share), unico fornitore leading-edge lithography al mondo", "en": "EUV monopoly (~90% share), sole leading-edge lithography supplier worldwide"}, {"it": "Q2 2026: revenue €9.33B (+21% YoY, beat), guidance FY26 alzata a €43-45B (+16%)", "en": "Q2 2026: revenue €9.33B (+21% YoY, beat), FY26 guidance raised to €43-45B (+16%)"}, {"it": "Bilancio A+: cassa €7.6B, D/E 13%, €12B buyback + dividendo €7.50 (+17% YoY)", "en": "A+ balance sheet: cash €7.6B, D/E 13%, €12B buyback + €7.50 dividend (+17% YoY)"} ], "bear_points": [ {"it": "Fwd P/E 51x su massimi 10Y, consensus avg PT $1,708 SOTTO prezzo attuale $1,785", "en": "Fwd P/E 51x at 10Y highs, consensus avg PT $1,708 BELOW current $1,785"}, {"it": "Cina 33% (2025) → 20% (2026) per export controls, ulteriori restrizioni possibili", "en": "China 33% (2025) → 20% (2026) from export controls, further restrictions possible"}, {"it": "High-NA adoption ritardata da TSMC in favore di advanced packaging", "en": "High-NA adoption delayed by TSMC in favor of advanced packaging"} ], "risks": [ {"it": "Restrizioni China escalation → -10-20% revenue potenziale", "en": "China restrictions escalation → -10-20% potential revenue impact"}, {"it": "Compressione multiplo da 51x a 30x peer = -40% prezzo", "en": "Multiple compression from 51x to 30x peer = -40% price impact"}, {"it": "Concentrazione clienti: top-5 = 80%+ ricavi, Taiwan Strait risk", "en": "Customer concentration: top-5 = 80%+ revenue, Taiwan Strait risk"} ] }

Sources & Disclaimer

Sources: Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, ASML investor relations (Q2 2026 press release 2026-07-15, 6-K filings), GlobeNewswire, StockTitan (SEC filings, buyback disclosures), Bernstein/JP Morgan/Morningstar/Argus analyst notes, Foreign Affairs Forum (geopolitical analysis), TradingView. Market data — last verified close 2026-07-16: ASML $1,784.87 (-1.67% profit-taking after Q2 earnings pop), market cap ~$684B, 52W range $683.48-$1,913.70, 394M shares outstanding, short interest ~0.5%. Q3 2026 earnings expected mid-October 2026. Currency: EUR reporting, USD ADR. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. ⚠️ Not investment advice.