hourglass
Loading…
Preparing the latest DD data, styles and content.
63OpportunityDD: Oct 28, 2026Analyst: 73
paidPrice at analysis date
USD 40.7 (28/10/2026)
domainMkt cap
-
pie_chartShares
-
candlestick_chart52W
-
trending_downShort interest
3.0%
INFOFinancials
Verdict: NeutralHigher net interest margin and core tangible returns support the franchise, but the October 27 share price already exceeds the independently modeled base value. Securities marks and credit quality warrant monitoring.
📊 DIANALITICS RESEARCH INDEXScore /100 — updated 2026-10-28
73
Financial strength
16
/20 pts
Earnings and cash generation
10
/15 pts
Balance sheet
11
/15 pts
Business maturity
12
/15 pts
Catalysts
7
/10 pts
Regulatory risk
6
/8 pts
Risk/reward
3
/7 pts
Management
4
/5 pts
Sector/macro
2
/3 pts
Governance
2
/2 pts
Fair value — residual income on tangible equity
Fair value base case
USD 33.4
Range: USD 23.9-USD 45.2
Price at analysis date: USD 40.7 (28/10/2026)
Base upside/downside: -18%
Bank-specific residual-income method: P/TBV = (sustainable ROTE − long-run growth) / (cost of equity − growth), giving 1.478× base. The 16.3% sustainable ROTE is an analyst assumption near Q2 core 16.31% and below Q3 core 18.27%; 12% cost of equity and 3% growth are explicit scenario assumptions, not company guidance. The Q3 reported tangible book is $22.61. This model is sensitive: at 14% sustainable ROTE fair value falls to $27.64. The current $40.66 price equals 1.80× tangible book and requires about 19.2% sustained ROTE at those discount/growth assumptions. Peer P/S figures were not verified and are intentionally excluded from the valuation. No current dated analyst target was independently verified. ⚠️ Not investment advice.
| Component | Assumption | USD/share |
|---|---|---|
| Tangible book anchor | Issuer Q3 2026 tangible book per share | $22.61 |
| Excess-return franchise value | ($22.61 × (16.3% − 12.0%)) / (12.0% − 3.0%) | +$10.80 |
| Base fair value | Book plus capitalized excess return; rounded | $33.41 |
| Reference price | 2026-10-27 closing price | $40.66 |
| Value less reference price | $33.41 − $40.66 (−17.8%) | −$7.25 |
Bull
$45.22
Probability: 20%
Sustainable ROTE 21%; cost of equity 12%; growth 3%.
Base
$33.41
Probability: 50%
Sustainable ROTE 16.3%; cost of equity 12%; growth 3%.
Bear
$23.87
Probability: 30%
ROTE 12.5%; cost of equity 12%; growth 3%, with impaired franchise premium.
Methodology: Bank-specific residual-income method: P/TBV = (sustainable ROTE − long-run growth) / (cost of equity − growth), giving 1.478× base. The 16.3% sustainable ROTE is an analyst assumption near Q2 core 16.31% and below Q3 core 18.27%; 12% cost of equity and 3% growth are explicit scenario assumptions, not company guidance. The Q3 reported tangible book is $22.61. This model is sensitive: at 14% sustainable ROTE fair value falls to $27.64. The current $40.66 price equals 1.80× tangible book and requires about 19.2% sustained ROTE at those discount/growth assumptions. Peer P/S figures were not verified and are intentionally excluded from the valuation. No current dated analyst target was independently verified. ⚠️ Not investment advice. Not investment advice.
Capital structure
Equity market value
~$682m
$40.66 × ~16.78m implied period-end shares
Assets / deposits
$4.70bn / $3.94bn
Q3 2026 reported
Tangible book / share
$22.61
Book value $31.95
2025 acquisition issued shares; 2025 diluted average shares 15.955m versus about 16.78m Q3 2026 period-end inferred from $536m equity/$31.95 book per share. The 15.32m third-party share count is stale relative to issuer period-end data. No announced repurchase authorization was verified. Bank deposits and borrowings are operating funding, not net debt for an industrial EV bridge.
Financial performance and sustainability
Q3 net interest income
$40.7m
Q3 GAAP net income
$16.1m
Q3 net interest margin
3.77%
Q3 core ROTE
18.27%
| USD m except per share | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | 9M 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 117.7 | 113.8 | 134.5 | 115.5 |
| Net income | 44.9 | 43.5 | 36.9 | 44.9 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 2.95 | 2.84 | 2.31 | 2.67 |
Annual data from the 2025 10-K. 9M 2026 is an interim period and must not be read as a full year. Banking free cash flow and EBITDA are not decision-useful like industrial-company measures; net interest income, credit costs, capital and tangible returns drive this analysis. No formal FY2026 earnings guidance was found.
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP EPS ($) | 0.54 | 0.70 | 0.81 | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Net interest margin | 3.56% | 3.62% | 3.54% | 3.61% | 3.77% |
| Core ROTE | 17.23% | 16.91% | 16.03% | 16.31% | 18.27% |
Q3 efficiency ratio55.26%
article
Business model and investment thesis
Community banking in northern New England
Bar Harbor Bankshares owns Bar Harbor Bank & Trust, serving Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont with deposits, residential and commercial loans, and wealth management. Deposit repricing and lower wholesale borrowing improved Q3 spread income. The thesis depends on sustaining tangible returns as commercial real estate credit and securities marks evolve.
Q3 deposits rose $84m to $3.938bn while borrowings fell $123.7m to $157.4m. Trust and investment fees rose to $4.2m from $3.9m a year earlier.
article
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
Securities marks
HighAFS unrealized losses increased to $72.9m from $45.0m quarter on quarter.
Commercial real estate
HighCRE originations increased while a property in other real estate owned was written down.
Deposit pricing
ModerateCurrent spread gains could reverse if deposit costs rise faster than asset yields.
Acquisition integration
ModerateWoodsville acquisition affects expense and earnings comparisons.
Credit reserves
ModerateAllowance coverage was 0.88% of loans, down from 0.95% a year earlier.
Interest-rate duration
ModerateAFS portfolio effective duration rose to 5.5 years.
Regional concentration
ModerateMaine, New Hampshire and Vermont economic conditions dominate loan demand.
Litigation and governance
ModerateNo specific material current proceeding was confirmed; ordinary banking regulatory exposure remains.
article
SWOT analysis
Strengths
- +Q3 NIM 3.77%
- +Q3 core ROTE 18.27%
- +Deposits rose $84m sequentially
- +Wealth-management fee stream
Weaknesses
- −AFS losses $72.9m
- −Tangible book fell Q/Q
- −Reported ROE below 15%
- −2025 integration distorts trend
Opportunities
- →Lower wholesale funding
- →New retail accounts
- →Commercial lending referrals
- →Sustained margin expansion
Threats
- !CRE credit deterioration
- !Deposit competition
- !Rate-driven securities marks
- !Regional economic downturn
article
Summary by assessment area
Financial position
- Bank remains profitable with $536m reported equity.
Operations
- Q3 margin and core tangible return improved sequentially.
Valuation
- Base $33.41 versus $40.66 close implies limited margin of safety.
Sources & Disclaimer
Sources: Q3 2026 issuer release (SEC) ; FY2025 10-K ; October 27 closing price (S&P via StockAnalysis) ; alternate price feed ; short interest . Figures current to 2026-10-28. Estimates and scenario assumptions are analyst judgments. ⚠️ Not investment advice.