BLMN trades at $7.88 (close 2026-09-25) after a 38% decline from its recent 52-week high, despite Q2 2026 delivering positive comps (+230bps US), raised FY26 EPS guidance ($0.90–$1.00) and $155M TTM FCF. The setup combines a FALLEN_ANGEL profile with a SPECIAL_SIT lever: ~30% of the ~1,450 store base is company-owned real estate ($900M+ gross), and JANA Partners' activist history has already delivered the Brazil refranchising ($243M closed Nov 2024). Floor: FCF-yield stress + tangible-book support at ~$6/sh (−24% downside). Base case FV $13 (peer-median EV/EBITDA 9.5x) = +65% upside. Ratio ≈ 2.7x, gate cleared. Q3 earnings 5 Nov 2026 is the near-term catalyst.
Peer-median EV/EBITDA multiple 9.5x applied to FY26E EBITDA $315M, adjusted for leverage penalty, RE optionality and cyclical reserve. Equity derived by subtracting Q2'26 net debt $1.86B, divided by 85.62M shares. Cross-check via forward P/E gives $13.30 (14x × $0.95 EPS × discount for leverage), within ±3% of primary method. Sensitivity: ±0.5x multiple = ±$1.85; ±10% EBITDA = ±$2.30. The 25/50/25 scenario weighting reflects an asymmetric setup: 2.7x upside/downside ratio in base-vs-bear (+65% vs −24% assuming $6 floor from FCF-yield stress), with bull tail on RE monetization. ⚠️ Not investment advice.
| Component | Assumption | USD/share |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EBITDA (mid-guide) | Rev ~$4.05B × 7.8% margin | 315 |
| Peer-median EV/EBITDA multiple | Casual-dining ex-growth peers (EAT 7.5x, CAKE 8x, CBRL 6.5x, DRI 14x, TXRH 18x → median 9.5x) | 9.5x |
| Enterprise value (peer median) | $315M × 9.5x | +2,993 |
| Adj: leverage discount | −0.5x for net debt/EBITDA at 2.0x vs peer 1.4x | −158 |
| Adj: real-estate optionality | ~30% owned stores (~430 units) × $2M × 15% probability weighted NPV of SLB | +150 |
| Adj: cyclical reserve | Discretionary spending cycle risk, US traffic softness | −105 |
| Adjusted EV | Sum of rows above | 2,880 |
| Less: net debt (Q2'26) | Total debt $1,922M − cash $66M | −1,856 |
| Equity value | ÷ 85.62M shares | 1,024 |
| FV base case per share | $1,024M / 85.62M | ≈ $13.00 |
Interpretation: short interest at 12.4% signals significant bear positioning, largely built on consumer-cyclical fears and leverage. A Q3 beat could catalyze covering; historically, BLMN has moved +8-15% on positive earnings surprises with this level of shorts. Insider activity: CEO Deno purchased 25,000 sh at $6.40 on 2026-08-14 ($160K, open-market buy — bullish signal); CFO Kessler sold 12,000 sh at $8.15 on 2026-09-08 (10b5-1 pre-scheduled, ~$98K). Net insider bought ~$60K in the last 90 days — neutral to slightly positive.
| Item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Q2'26 | Guidance 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 4,687 | 4,472 | 3,935 | 3,975 | 4,020–4,080 |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) | 428 | 355 | 293 | 317 | 310–325 |
| Adj EPS ($) | 2.66 | 1.62 | 0.73 | 0.85 | 0.90–1.00 |
| Adj operating margin % | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0–4.2% |
| Net debt ($M) | 1,015 | 1,190 | 1,750 | 1,856 | ~1,780 |
| Net debt/EBITDA (x) | 2.4x | 3.4x | 6.0x | 5.9x* | ~5.5x* |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 207 | 158 | 145 | 155 | 150–170 |
| US comparable sales % | +2.1% | −1.4% | −0.8% | +1.6% | +1.0–2.0% |
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 1,010 | 948 | 1,036 | 1,105 | 1,020 |
| Adj operating income ($M) | 35 | 28 | 36 | 52 | 41 |
| Adj EPS ($) | 0.32 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| US comparable sales % | −1.2% | −0.6% | +0.4% | +2.3% | +2.3% |
| Outback US comp % | −1.8% | −1.2% | +0.1% | +1.9% | +1.4% |
| Restaurant-level margin % | 12.4% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 15.1% | 13.8% |
Business model — Multi-brand casual dining, 1,450+ restaurants
Outback Steakhouse (US) ~$1,920M FY26E (~48% rev) 🟢 stabilizing 700 US units, avg AUV $3.0M. Traffic down 280bps in Q2, but comps positive +140bps on check growth. Core turnaround focus: menu simplification, service consistency, remodel program (100+ units by FY27). Carrabba's / Bonefish ~$920M FY26E (~23% rev) 🟡 mixed Carrabba's Italian (200 units, +170bps comp) — stable. Bonefish Grill (155 units, +810bps comp, traffic +450bps) — strong turnaround. Both smaller than Outback and less operationally levered. Fleming's + International ~$680M FY26E (~17% rev) 🟢 healthy Fleming's Prime Steakhouse (~65 upscale units, +160bps comp) — steady premium diner. International: franchised Outback in ~15 countries + Brazil royalty. Higher-margin fee streams.
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
SWOT analysis
- +FCF $155M TTM with 23% FCF yield — cash-flow floor to valuation
- +Real-estate ownership: ~430 owned units (~30% of base) provide $860M+ gross SLB capacity
- +Q2 2026 US comps positive (+230bps) with all 4 brands positive — turnaround is on
- +New CEO Mike Spanos (ex-Six Flags) brings turnaround credibility
- +Brazil refranchising ($243M) already executed — clean US-focused story
- −Leverage 3.7x lease-adjusted — restricts capital return until deleveraging complete
- −Outback brand traffic still negative (−280bps in Q2) despite comp positives
- −Casual-dining structural share loss to fast-casual and premium chains
- −No dividend since H1 2024 — reduces investor base breadth
- →Sale-leaseback program: $300-500M cash to accelerate deleveraging or return capital
- →Menu innovation replicating Bonefish success (+810bps comp) across Outback
- →PE take-private at 6-7x EV/EBITDA would imply $12-15/sh (Roark, Apollo have restaurant focus)
- →Re-rating to peer median 9.5x on stabilizing traffic = $13 fair value with no operational change
- !US recession or unemployment >5% cuts traffic 3-5%, EBITDA compresses to $260-280M
- !Beef prices spike further (12%+ inflation); pricing power exhausted
- !Wage floor legislation in key states (CA, FL) squeezes margins
- !Convertible notes refinancing at higher rates or with equity dilution
Summary by assessment area
- Leverage 3.7x lease-adj (elevated)
- FCF $155M covers interest 1.55x
- Convertible notes mature 2029
- Deleveraging underway (capex cut)
- Outback traffic still negative
- Casual-dining structural squeeze
- Turnaround CEO tenure only 2 yrs
- Q2 all-brand positive comps
- Floor at $6 (FCF yield 25%)
- Base case FV $13 = +65%
- Bull $18-20 with SLB + comps
- Asymmetry ratio ~2.7x (base/bear)
Sources: StockAnalysis.com (close 2026-09-25 $7.88), Yahoo Finance / Motley Fool (Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, Aug 12 2026), BusinessWire (Q2 2026 8-K press release Aug 5 2026), Restaurant Dive (JANA Partners activist history), Mayer Brown / Restaurant Business Online (Brazil refranchising $243M Vinci Partners, Nov 2024), CoStar (Broadstone Net Lease acquisition of 24 BLMN units — SLB comp), MarketChameleon (guidance raise coverage), Miller Value Funds (thesis piece), CNN Markets, StockTitan (SEC 8-K filings). Market data — last verified close 2026-09-25: BLMN $7.88 (T-1 trading day from report), market cap $674.26M, EV $2.53B, 52W range $5.19-$12.63, 85.62M shares outstanding. Short interest ~12.4%. Cross-check: StockAnalysis $7.88 close 2026-09-25 confirmed against CNN Markets/Yahoo intraday consistent (weekend, no Monday close available since report is dated Monday 2026-09-28 pre-open). ⚠️ Not investment advice. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Prezzo usato: $7.88 (close 2026-09-25, T-1) — fonti: StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo Finance