Largest US-listed LNG carrier operator with $3.1B contracted backlog and 6.9-year average tenure, trading at 12.3x fwd P/E and ~11x EV/EBITDA — broadly in line with pure-play peer FLNG and below GLNG. Q2 2026 delivered +50% EPS beat with 82% EBITDA margin, but $2.7B net debt (~8x EBITDA gross leverage) and $1.7B residual capex through Q1 2029 leave equity value highly sensitive to charter rates and multiple compression. Base FV ~$24 vs current ~$22.50 implies limited absolute upside; the thesis works only if the 7 newbuild deliveries execute on time and index-linked contracts hold up through the 2027-28 LNG shipping inflection.
Primary: EV/EBITDA on FY26E EBITDA $370M at 10.5x (peer median excl. GLNG outlier), plus 0.5x backlog premium. Implicit multiple 11.2x, within ±20% band. Cross-check: FY26E EPS $1.85 at 13x P/E delivers $24.05, converging with primary. Sensitivity: +/-2x EV/EBITDA moves base FV by +/-12/sh (~50%), reflecting the equity leverage inherent in $2.7B net debt on $370M EBITDA. Consensus $24-26 (Aug 2026) sits within base range. ⚠️ Not investment advice.
| Component | Assumption | USD/share |
|---|---|---|
| Fleet EBITDA capitalization | FY26E EBITDA $370M × 10.5x EV/EBITDA = $3,885M / 60.11M sh | +64.63 |
| Backlog quality premium | +0.5x multiple for $3.1B contracted revenue, 6.9y avg tenure | +3.08 |
| Newbuild option value | 7 LNGCs on order, 50% prob-weighted × $500M NPV net of remaining capex | +4.16 |
| Buyback + dividend PV | $20M repurchase program (1.5% mcap) + $0.60/sh dividend PV | +1.00 |
| Less: net debt (Q2 2026) | Debt $2,955M − Cash $269M = $2,686M / 60.11M sh | −44.70 |
| Less: capex funding gap | $1.7B residual capex × 30% equity funding est. = $250M / 60.11M sh | −4.17 |
| FV base case | Sum of components above | ≈ $24.00 |
SI is negligible — the market is neither positioned for squeeze nor for accelerated selloff. No material class action, SEC investigation, or short-seller report identified in the trailing 12 months. Insider transactions: none material >$500K flagged in Form 4 filings (Marinakis-controlled entity retains dominant stake).
| Item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | Guidance 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | ~290 | 339.6 | 392.7 | ~430-440 | ~510-540 |
| EBITDA ($M) | ~220 | ~260 | 318.6 | ~370 | ~430 |
| EBITDA margin | ~76% | ~77% | 82% | ~84% | ~84% |
| Net income ($M) | ~60 | ~70 | ~100 | ~110 | ~130 |
| EPS ($) | ~1.05 | ~1.22 | 1.74 | ~1.85 | ~2.15 |
| Net debt ($M) | ~1,600 | ~1,900 | ~2,400 | ~2,700 | ~3,500 |
| Dividend/sh ($) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | ~85 | ~95 | 98.3 | ~99 | 104.9 |
| EBITDA margin % | ~78% | ~80% | ~82% | ~83% | ~84% |
| Net income ($M) | ~18 | ~22 | 28.4 | ~27 | 29.0 |
| End-of-period cash ($M) | ~240 | ~250 | ~260 | ~265 | 269 |
Business model — Largest US-listed LNG shipping platform
LNG Carriers (core) ~$350-370M FY26E (85% rev) 🟢 ramping 12 LNGCs in operation plus 7 newbuilds on order. Long-term charters with super-majors, index-linked components on newer deliveries. Primary GM driver; core value engine. Multi-gas / LCO₂ carriers ~$40-50M FY26E (10% rev) 🟡 to prove First 22,000 cbm LCO₂/multi-gas carrier "Active" delivered 2025 (Lloyd's Ship of the Year). Emerging carbon-capture logistics play; unproven margin profile but strategic optionality on CCS scale-up. Container (legacy) ~$20-30M FY26E (5% rev) 🔴 legacy runoff One Neo-Panamax container vessel remaining. Non-strategic, likely divested; contribution declining as CCEC pivots fully to LNG/gas.
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
SWOT analysis
- +Largest US-listed LNG shipping platform with $3.1B contracted backlog
- +82%+ EBITDA margins and 82-84% forward margin trajectory
- +6.9-year average charter tenure — high revenue visibility
- +Buyback program ($20M) and stable dividend during heavy capex phase
- +Q2 2026 EPS beat +50% ($0.48 vs $0.32 consensus)
- −Gross debt/EBITDA ~8x, net ~7.3x — high absolute leverage
- −Equity value highly sensitive to multiple (±2x = ~50% FV swing)
- −Modest but persistent dilution funding capex program
- −Marinakis-controlled structure limits minority governance rights
- −Contracted revenue crowds LNG-spot upside vs pure-play FLNG
- →LNG shipping supply inflection late 2027 / early 2028
- →7 newbuild LNGCs delivering 2027-29 — fleet earnings step-up
- →LCO₂ / multi-gas carrier optionality on carbon-capture logistics
- →Multiple re-rating toward FLNG parity post capex peak
- !Charter rate correction wiping out newbuild economics
- !Refinancing at higher rates — WACC creep on next capex tranche
- !Global LNG demand disappointment (China, EU regas capacity)
- !Shipyard cost inflation or delivery slippage
Summary by assessment area
- Gross leverage ~8x EBITDA is structural to LNG shipping model
- Backlog $3.1B provides visibility but not immunity from spot rate risk
- Capex funding gap $1.7B likely requires further equity raises
- Largest US-listed LNGC platform, tier-1 super-major charterers
- 82%+ EBITDA margin with visible expansion path
- Newbuild orderbook = ~20% of global LNGC pipeline
- FV $24 vs $22.50 → +6.7% base upside, modest
- Fwd P/E 12.3x = pure-play FLNG parity, no discount
- Consensus $24-26 aligns with base FV; bull case requires re-rating
Sources: Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp Q2 2026 earnings release (globenewswire, stocktitan), FY2025 10-K, Simply Wall St, StockAnalysis, Investing.com, Kraken, TipRanks, SEC 6-K filings, Motley Fool earnings transcripts, WallStreetZen, Benzinga analyst ratings, Trefis Small Cap coverage. Market data — last verified close 2026-09-10: CCEC ~$22.50 (Investing.com $22.48, Kraken $22.81 as of Sept 10-11 2026), market cap ~$1.35B, 52W range $16.77 – $24.00, 60.11M shares outstanding. Short interest ~0.06%. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.