Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) - Due Diligence

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62OpportunityDD: Jun 25, 2026Analyst: 73

paidReference price

EUR 5.52 (25/06/2026)

domainMkt cap

€4.34B

pie_chartShares

candlestick_chart52W

€5.27-€6.82

trending_downShort interest

1.5%

INFOBorsa ItalianaConsumer Staples4700 employees

Verdict: Favorable Risk/Reward —

High-quality global spirits compounder anchored by Aperol (44% of sales, secular tailwind) trading at 12x EV/EBITDA-adj vs historical 18-22x. FY25 delivered +2.4% organic topline + 60bps margin accretion despite Jamaica hurricane and US tariffs, net debt re-leveraged a year ahead of plan to 2.5x EBITDA, dividend stepped up +54% to €0.10. 2026 guidance is constructive (continued organic growth, margin accretion H2-skewed, ~€30M tariff drag offset by €70M perimeter disposals). Overhangs: Lagfin €1.29B Italian tax seizure, US tariff trajectory, cognac category weakness. Base FV €7.20 vs price €5.484 = +31%; quality compounder near 52W lows offering more interesting entry point than at €6.32.

📊 DIANALITICS RESEARCH INDEXCompany & Thesis Assessment Score /100 — updated 2026-06-25

Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR.MI)

Global Premium Spirits · Euronext Milan · Aperitifs category leader (Aperol, Campari)

"Defensive compounder, multiple compression vs history offers modest re-rating optionality."

Aperitifs leader Net debt 2.5x (target reached early) Dividend +54% MSCI ESG AA Lagfin tax overhang US tariff €30M

Fin. strength

/20 pts

EBITDA/FCF

/15 pts

Debt/leverage

/15 pts

Stage/business

/15 pts

Catalysts

/10 pts

Reg. risk

/8 pts

Risk/reward

/7 pts

Management

/5 pts

Sector/macro

/3 pts

Gov./ESG

/2 pts

💡 Fair Value Estimate — EV/EBITDA SotP (Houses of Brands) + DCF cross-check

Fair value base case

EUR 7.20

Range: EUR 5.50-EUR 9.00

Reference price: EUR 5.52 (25/06/2026)

Base upside/downside: +30%

Methodology: Probability-weighted blend (0.25 × €9.00 + 0.50 × €7.25 + 0.25 × €5.00 = €2.25 + €3.63 + €1.25 = €7.13 ), consistent with the additive SotP at €7.21. SotP assigns category-appropriate multiples by House of Brands rather than applying a single blended multiple, which better captures Aperol's franchise premium. Implicit FY26E EV/EBITDA of 13.1x is at +30% premium to Pernod Ricard (justified by Aperol secular tailwind + margin profile) and ~25% discount to own 10-year median (reflects sector de-rating + US tariff). The asymmetry vs current price (+31% to base, +64% to bull, −9% to bear ⇒ ratio ~3.5x) is now meaningful — at €5.484 the stock is near the 52W low (€5.27 on May 18, 2026), offering a more interesting entry than at the prior cited €6.32. ⚠️ Not investment advice.

Component	Assumption	EUR/share
House of Aperitifs (Aperol, Campari, Crodino, Sarti)	44% × €785M = ~€345M EBITDA-adj × 18x EV/EBITDA (Aperol secular premium) / 1,158M shares	+5.36
House of Whiskey & Rum (Wild Turkey, Appleton)	14% × €785M = ~€110M × 11x (mid-multiple, US category soft)	+1.04
House of Agave (Espolòn, Montelobos)	10% × €785M = ~€79M × 13x (premium tequila, blanco competitive)	+0.89
House of Cognac & Champagne (Courvoisier, Grand Marnier, Lallier)	10% × €785M = ~€79M × 10x (cognac category de-rated, Courvoisier integration ongoing)	+0.68
Local brands (SKYY, sparkling wines, vermouth)	22% × €785M = ~€172M × 8x (lower-multiple, SKYY softness in US)	+1.19
Net debt (Dec 31, 2025)	€1,958M / 1,158M effective shares (post 32.5M treasury)	−1.69
Lagfin tax-controversy contingent reserve	10% probability × €300M effective claim on Campari (vs €1.29B at Lagfin) / 1,158M	−0.26
FV base case	Sum of rows above (5.36 + 1.04 + 0.89 + 0.68 + 1.19 − 1.69 − 0.26)	≈ €7.21

Bull

€8.50–9.50

Probability: 25%

US tariff resolution + Aperol US on-premise momentum reaccelerates; cognac category stabilizes; Lagfin tax claim settled below current overhang. Multiple re-rates to 15x EV/EBITDA on €830M FY27E EBITDA-adj.

Base

€6.50–8.00

Probability: 50%

FY26E in line with guidance: ~+3-4% organic topline, ~+50bps margin accretion, EBITDA-adj ~€800M, dividend continues to step up. Multiple stays at 12-13x as tariff/cognac overhangs persist but Aperol franchise continues to compound.

Bear

€4.50–5.50

Probability: 25%

US tariff escalation to ~€60-80M annual drag; cognac de-rates further; Lagfin tax case materializes against parent (low probability but high impact); EU consumer weakens. EBITDA-adj falls to €720M, multiple compresses to 10x.

Methodology: Methodology: Probability-weighted blend (0.25 × €9.00 + 0.50 × €7.25 + 0.25 × €5.00 = €2.25 + €3.63 + €1.25 = €7.13 ), consistent with the additive SotP at €7.21. SotP assigns category-appropriate multiples by House of Brands rather than applying a single blended multiple, which better captures Aperol's franchise premium. Implicit FY26E EV/EBITDA of 13.1x is at +30% premium to Pernod Ricard (justified by Aperol secular tailwind + margin profile) and ~25% discount to own 10-year median (reflects sector de-rating + US tariff). The asymmetry vs current price (+31% to base, +64% to bull, −9% to bear ⇒ ratio ~3.5x) is now meaningful — at €5.484 the stock is near the 52W low (€5.27 on May 18, 2026), offering a more interesting entry than at the prior cited €6.32. ⚠️ Not investment advice. Not investment advice.

⚠️ Methodology note: Campari is a large-cap EU premium spirits compounder, profile dictates DCF + EV/EBITDA SotP. Reported figures are IFRS in EUR (Dutch N.V. legal entity, Italian operational HQ, Milan listing). Score uses the Gov./ESG criterion (CRIT_10_EU) reflecting the controlling shareholder structure (Lagfin S.C.A. >50% economic / 80% voting) and the active Italian tax controversy. Peer set: Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Rémy Cointreau, Brown-Forman, Becle. FY25 detailed data from official press release dated 2026-03-04.

📊 Capital Structure · Short Interest · Buyback & Dilution

🟢 Short Interest

~1–2%

N/D in EU regulatory disclosure (Consob/AFM threshold 0.5%). Low — defensive name, Lagfin 50%+ stake limits float to ~600M shares effective. No notable disclosed short positions.

🟢 Share dilution (1Y)

~0%

Share count broadly stable at ~1.19B issued, 32.5M treasury, 1,158M effective. No equity issuance in 2025 (Courvoisier funded via debt + capital increase in 2024). EMTN bond programme established March 2026 = bond-funded, no equity dilution.

🔵 Buyback

~€0 + treasury

No active buyback program; 32.48M treasury shares held (~2.7% of issued). Capital priority shifted to dividend step-up (+54% to €0.10/sh) and deleveraging. Buyback may resume post-2026 capex finalization.

Short Interest — context

CPR — ~1.5%

~1.5%

Free float is constrained by Lagfin (>50% economic, 80% voting via Italian super-voting shares). Effective float ~580M shares is sufficient for liquidity but not deep enough to attract material short interest. The capital structure is owner-operator anchored; minority shareholders benefit from Garavoglia family long-term horizon but bear governance discount due to controlling-shareholder transactions (Lagfin tax controversy). Treasury 32.5M shares provide latent buyback capacity. Insider transactions of note: directors Kunze-Concewitz (600,170 sh) and Marchesini (38,500 sh) retain holdings post-resignation March 2026; no material insider sales disclosed in the last 12 months.

$Financial analysis — FY 2025 actuals + FY 2026E guidance

Net sales FY2025

€3,051M

+2.4% organic / −0.6% reported (FX −3%)

EBITDA-adj margin

25.7%

+180bps YoY; EBIT-adj 20.9% (+60bps organic)

Recurring FCF

€571M

73% conversion vs EBITDA-adj

Net debt / EBITDA-adj

2.5x

from 3.6x peak Sep'24 (target reached 1Y ahead)

Item (€M)	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026E	Guidance 2027E
Net sales	2,918	3,070	3,051	~3,025	~3,150 (mid-single-digit organic)
Organic growth (%)	+10.5	+1.5	+2.4	+3-4	+5-7 (medium-term)
EBITDA-adj	727	733	785	~795	~860
EBITDA-adj margin (%)	24.9	23.9	25.7	26.3	27.3
EBIT-adj	614	605	637	~660	~720
Net profit-adj (Group)	347	376	386	~395	~430
EPS-adj (€)	0.30	0.31	0.32	~0.34	~0.37
Net debt (period-end)	1,860	2,377	1,958	~1,750	~1,500
Dividend per share (€)	0.062	0.065	0.100	~0.110	~0.120

FY2023 figures pre-Courvoisier; FY2024 reflects partial-year Courvoisier contribution post Apr 2024 closing. FY2026E estimates extrapolated from company guidance ("continued pace of organic growth, contained margin accretion H2-skewed, ~€30M tariff drag, ~€70M perimeter effect from non-core disposals"). No formal EPS or net debt guidance disclosed by management.

Annual dynamics — Houses of Brands by % of FY2025 sales and organic growth
House	% of sales	Total chg	Organic	Perimeter	FX
Aperitifs (Aperol, Campari, Crodino, Sarti)	43.8%	+0.8%	+2.3%	0.0%	−1.5%
Whiskey & Rum (Wild Turkey, Appleton)	14.0%	−2.6%	+2.4%	0.0%	−5.0%
Agave (Espolòn, Montelobos)	9.6%	−0.8%	+3.4%	0.0%	−4.2%
Cognac & Champagne (Courvoisier, Grand Marnier)	9.9%	+27.3%	+13.7%	+16.6%	−3.1%
Local brands (SKYY, Riccadonna)	22.7%	−10.5%	−1.5%	−4.9%	−4.1%

Financial position and sustainability

Net debt / EBITDA-adj

2.5x

FCF / EBITDA conversion

73%

Gross margin FY2025

60.3%

Renewable electricity share

98.4%

account_tree

Business model — Premium spirits portfolio anchored by Aperol franchise

Campari in one slide

Campari Group is a global premium spirits leader with a portfolio of 50+ brands spanning aperitifs (Aperol, Campari, Crodino, Sarti Rosa), whiskey/rum (Wild Turkey, Appleton Estate, Wray & Nephew), agave (Espolòn, Montelobos), cognac/champagne (Courvoisier, Grand Marnier, Lallier) and local brands (SKYY, Riccadonna). Net sales €3,051M FY25, EBITDA-adj margin 25.7%, EBIT-adj 20.9%. Production in 24 sites across 4 continents, own distribution in 27 countries, sells in 190+ markets. Founded 1860, listed on Euronext Milan since 2001 (Reuters CPRI.MI, Bloomberg CPR IM). Controlling shareholder Lagfin S.C.A. (Garavoglia family) holds >50% economic / 80% voting rights. The core thesis is Aperol — the spritz-driven aperitif category creator that has compounded category share and footprint globally for over a decade and remains the single biggest value driver of the portfolio.

House of Aperitifs (Aperol, Campari, Crodino, Sarti Rosa) ~€1.34B FY25 (44% rev) 🟢 secular tailwind Aperol franchise +1% (resilient despite category de-seasonalization push), Sarti Rosa +triple digit in Germany expanding across EU, Crodino non-alcoholic +7%. Most valuable franchise; commands premium category multiple. House of Whiskey & Rum (Wild Turkey, Appleton) ~€427M FY25 (14% rev) 🟡 mixed Wild Turkey US +2%, Appleton Jamaican rum +9% pre-hurricane. Russell's Reserve impacted by H1 product shortages. Other whiskey −2% on US category soft. Stable but not growth driver. House of Agave (Espolòn, Montelobos) ~€293M FY25 (10% rev) 🟢 ramping Espolòn +3% (Reposado +8%, Blanco −1% on price discipline). Montelobos double-digit in US/Mexico. Espolòn RTD strong in Australia. Premium tequila category remains a long-term growth lever despite competitive blanco pricing. House of Cognac & Champagne (Courvoisier, Grand Marnier, Lallier) ~€302M FY25 (10% rev) 🟡 in integration Courvoisier (acquired Apr 2024) €157M sales — early integration, US/UK positive, China re-orders. Grand Marnier −8% (price discipline). Cognac category de-rated globally. Most uncertain area of the portfolio. Local brands (SKYY, sparkling wines, vermouth) ~€692M FY25 (22% rev) 🟡 portfolio pruning SKYY +2% (SKYY Cosmic Argentina offsetting US softness). Sparkling wine +2% (Riccadonna). Cinzano + Averna + Zedda Piras divested 2025 (~3% perimeter impact). Active portfolio streamlining ongoing. 2026 reorganization: 4 geographic BUs €1.13B NA / €1.42B EU / €0.20B APAC / €0.30B EMEA-Dev 🟢 new structure From 2026 segment reporting: North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Developing Markets. New CFO Francesco Mele effective March 2026. Cleaner P&L visibility ahead.

gavel

Legal, regulatory and risk analysis

Lagfin €1.29B tax seizure (Nov 2025)

High

Italian tax authorities seized €1.29B of Campari shares from controlling shareholder Lagfin S.C.A. over alleged tax fraud. The dispute is at the Lagfin level, not Campari Group itself, but creates overhang on shareholder structure stability and minority discount. Lagfin contests; no settlement disclosed.

US tariff exposure (~€30M FY26 drag)

High

Management quantifies tariff impact at ~€30M for FY26 based on current tariff levels. Risk of escalation to €60-80M if US imposes broader EU spirits tariffs. Canada down −5% in 2025 due to existing trade disruption — read-through to potential US escalation scenarios.

Cognac category de-rating

Moderate

Cognac category globally weak; Courvoisier integration ongoing (acquired Apr 2024 for $1.2B). Grand Marnier -8% organic in 2025. Courvoisier needs 2-3 more years to reach profitable run-rate. Acquisition multiple (>20x EV/EBITDA at close) was high; risk of further impairment if category weakness persists.

Controlling-shareholder structure (Lagfin)

Moderate

Lagfin holds 80% voting via Italian super-voting share mechanism with 50%+ economic. Generational handover ongoing (Alessandro Garavoglia, Jacopo Forloni added to Lagfin General Partner Mar 2026). Governance discount embedded in multiple; alignment historically constructive but no minority-shareholder veto on related-party transactions.

Deleveraging trajectory + dividend step-up

Positive

Net debt/EBITDA-adj reached 2.5x a full year ahead of plan (target was end-2026). Triggered +54% dividend hike to €0.10/sh, 35% payout. EMTN bond program established March 2026 for flexible debt access. Balance sheet is healthy and improving; capacity for shareholder returns expanding.

Aperol franchise secular tailwind

Positive

Aperitif category continues to gain share globally. Aperol franchise +1% (resilient) despite challenging Q4 base in Italy; de-seasonalization push (Aperol RTD, winter campaigns) showed Q4'25 momentum. Sarti Rosa is a successful brand extension (triple-digit growth in Germany). Long-term compounding driver.

FX headwind (USD weakness)

Moderate

FX impact −3% on FY25 reported sales. 44% of revenue from Americas, mostly USD-linked. Continued USD weakness mechanically compresses EUR-reported topline and margins. Hedging policy mitigates but does not eliminate.

ESG leadership recognized

Positive

MSCI ESG AA Leader (upgraded from A); CDP A- Climate & Water Leadership; S&P CSA 62/100 (+25 vs industry avg); ISS ESG Prime C+. Cooperative Compliance regime with Italian Revenue Agency from FY2024. 98.4% renewable electricity, −52% Scope 1&2 GHG vs 2019 baseline. Strong ESG profile supports investor base breadth.

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SWOT analysis

Strengths

+Aperol franchise: global category creator with sustained share gains
+Premium portfolio diversified across 5 Houses, 24 countries with organic growth in 2025
+EBITDA-adj margin 25.7% in upper quartile of peer group
+Deleveraged to 2.5x one year ahead of plan; €571M recurring FCF
+ESG leadership: MSCI AA, CDP A-, 98% renewable electricity

Weaknesses

−Controlling-shareholder structure limits minority influence; Lagfin tax overhang specific to Campari
−Courvoisier acquired at peak multiple (>20x); cognac category de-rating creates integration risk
−SKYY US softness persists; local brands −1.5% organic and shrinking via disposals
−USD revenue exposure (44% Americas) mechanically pressures EUR-reported P&L

Opportunities

→Aperol RTD and de-seasonalization push expand consumption occasions
→Sarti Rosa cross-EU rollout and Crodino non-alcoholic premiumization
→2026 reorganization (4 geographic BUs) enables sharper P&L disclosure and execution focus
→Treasury 32.5M shares + EMTN programme = future capital return optionality

Threats

!US tariff escalation beyond current €30M drag scenario
!EU consumer slowdown; Germany de-listing dispute headwinds for Aperol/Campari
!Lagfin tax case escalation could trigger forced share sale or governance instability
!Continued cognac category weakness could require Courvoisier goodwill impairment

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Summary by assessment area

🟢 Financial risk — Low

Net debt/EBITDA 2.5x (target reached ahead)
€571M recurring FCF, 73% conversion
EMTN programme = bond market access

🟡 Regulatory/Gov risk — Moderate

US tariff €30M FY26 drag (escalation risk)
Lagfin €1.29B Italian tax seizure overhang
Controlling-shareholder structure (80% voting)

🔵 R/R — Favorable but modest

Base upside +31% to €7.20 FV vs €5.484 (near 52W low)
Bull case +50% (€9.00) requires multiple re-rating
Bear case −24% (€4.80) on tariff escalation

2026-07-29 earnings

H1 2026 results (full P&L)

short-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

First half-year print under new geographic BU structure. Focus: organic growth trajectory vs +3-4% guidance, tariff drag actualization, A&P front-loading impact on margin, Courvoisier integration progress. Date proxy = end-July (historical pattern).

2026-11-04 earnings

Q3 2026 net sales + outlook (new lighter reporting format)

medium-term Impact: Medium Direction: Neutral

First Q3 print under new "net sales + outlook" lighter format (Board approved March 2026). Less granular than prior format; market reaction will depend on outlook commentary more than headline figures.

2026-09-30 regulatory

US-EU spirits tariff trajectory (proxy date end-Q3)

short-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

Current €30M FY26 tariff impact baked in. Escalation to ~€60-80M is bear case; resolution/de-escalation is bull case. EU-US trade negotiations continue; spirits often part of broader trade packages.

2026-12-31 operational

Extraordinary capex program finalization (production capacity)

medium-term Impact: Medium Direction: Bullish

€143M of FY25 capex was extraordinary (production capacity expansion). Finalization expected 2026 → FCF tailwind from 2027 as capex normalizes to ordinary levels (~€150M/yr), supporting accelerated deleveraging and capital returns.

2026-12-15 regulatory

Lagfin Italian tax case — next material development

medium-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

€1.29B Italian tax seizure of Lagfin Campari shares Nov 2025. Resolution (favorable or settlement) removes a key overhang on minority discount. Escalation could trigger forced share sale or controlling structure changes. Proxy date = year-end.

2027-03-03 earnings

FY 2026 full year results + 2027 outlook

long-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

Validation of FY26 guidance delivery and reset of medium-term trajectory (mid-to-high single-digit organic growth target). Includes dividend decision (likely another step-up) and SG&A program progress toward 200bps margin benefit by end-2027.

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Sources & Disclaimer

Sources: Campari Group FY2025 Annual Report & Press Release (March 4, 2026 — official PDF, all P&L / balance sheet / cash flow figures), Campari Group sustainability report (MSCI ESG AA, CDP A-, S&P CSA 62/100), Bloomberg (CPR IM Equity), MarketScreener (analyst consensus €6.56 mean, 20 analysts, mid-May 2026), Investing.com (Hold rating, 6 Buy / 3 Sell / 11 Hold), Drinks Business (cognac category context, Lagfin tax case), Newsweek & Drinks International (€1.29B Lagfin tax seizure Nov 2025), Bloomberg (Garavoglia family governance transition June 2026), Reuters (US-EU spirits tariff context). Market data — last verified close 2026-06-24 (Borsa Italiana official): CPR €5.484 (Reference Close €5.484, Official Close €5.48902; sanity check: €5.484 × 1.231B shares = €6.75B vs declared market cap €6.91B ✅; 52W range check: €5.484 within €5.274–€6.82 ✅), market cap ~€6.91B, EV ~€8.87B, 52W range €5.27–€6.82, ~1.19B shares issued / 32.5M treasury / ~1,158M effective; FY25 net sales €3,051M, EBITDA-adj €785M, net debt €1,958M, Net Debt/EBITDA 2.5x; dividend €0.10/sh FY25 (+54%). Lagfin (Garavoglia family) holds >50% economic and 80% voting rights. ⚠️ This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.