Realized +54.46% in 64 days from the tracked date (reference price $17.48). Call closed and archived β this report is a historical document, no longer maintained.
EverQuote is a high-quality, capital-light insurance marketplace: 15% revenue growth, record adjusted EBITDA, ~53% ROE, zero debt and $178M net cash. It beat guidance across all metrics in Q1 2026. The dominant factor is QUALITY β superior returns on capital and a clean balance sheet. On a peer-derived forward EV/EBITDA the stock screens undervalued (~6.7x derived multiple, peer range 7.2β8.5x), with a base-case fair value of ~$27 vs a ~$18.86 price β below the analyst consensus of $30β35. The core debate is whether the carrier-spend recovery cycle that drove 2024β25 has more room, or is normalizing toward a slower steady-state; auto-vertical concentration and AI-driven disintermediation of the lead-generation model are the principal risks β and the reason short interest has nearly tripled to ~14.5% in a quarter.
Methodology: Single primary method β forward EV/EBITDA β with the multiple derived from a peer-median-plus-adjustment grid, not chosen to fit a target. Peer median 8.0x (MediaAlpha 8.0x and NerdWallet 7.2x observed; QuinStreet ~8.5x estimated, TTM 18.8x excluded as distorted). Numeric adjustments net to β16% (concentration β21%, margin trend +5%, growth 0%) β 6.7x target. No balance-sheet adjustment to the multiple: with an EV-based multiple, net cash enters as a separate additive line β adjusting the multiple for it too would double-count. The FY26E EBITDA of ~$115M is an estimate (Q1 actual + Q2 guidance + Q3βQ4 run-rate extrapolation), not company guidance. AI growth-solutions optionality is excluded from the base case β no defensible NPV basis β and reflected only in the Bull scenario. The table sums arithmetically: 21.40 + 4.96 + 0.80 = $27.16. The derived 6.7x matches the forward EV/EBITDA independently reported for EVER by third-party sources. Scenario weights (25/50/25) follow the QUALITY profile β stable earnings justify a tight distribution; the bear case is floored by net cash. Sensitivity: a Β±1x change in the multiple moves FV by ~Β±$3.2/sh; a Β±$10M change in FY26E EBITDA moves FV by ~Β±$1.9/sh. Note: earlier drafts used assumed peer multiples of 13β17x and a reverse-engineered 5x β both corrected here against actual forward peer data. β οΈ Not investment advice.
| Component | Assumption | USD/share |
|---|---|---|
| Core marketplace value (EV) | ~$115M FY26E adj. EBITDA (estimate) Γ 6.7x derived EV/EBITDA = $770M EV / 36M sh | +21.40 |
| Net cash floor | $178.5M cash β $0 debt = $178.5M / 36M sh | +4.96 |
| Buyback accretion | $50M program, ~$30M remaining at <$20/sh, reduces share count ~4% | +0.80 |
| FV base case | 21.40 + 4.96 + 0.80 = 27.16, rounded | β $27.00 |
Short interest of ~14.5% sits at the top of the "elevated" band (above 10% is high; 20%+ would be severe). The notable feature is its speed: it rose from 8.7% in January to ~14.5% in roughly a quarter, with a sharp jump in February when competitor Insurify launched an AI shopping tool and the stock fell ~11% in one session. The short thesis is not about balance-sheet quality β that is clearly strong β but about the durability of current earnings: shorts are betting either that 2024β25 is a cyclical peak (revenue quadrupled off a depressed 2023 base) or that AI-driven disintermediation erodes the lead-generation model. This is the measurable version of the same scepticism shown by the share price, down ~29% over 12 months despite rising earnings. Days-to-cover is ~5 β no explosive squeeze setup. Insider activity: SEC filings over 12 months show numerous small insider sells and zero buys β routine for a stock-comp-heavy company, but no buy-side conviction signal. Link Ventures (Chairman David Blundin) remains the largest holder with ~19% ownership and majority voting power.
| Item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Q1 2026 | Guidance Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $288M | $501M | $692.5M | $190.9M | $185β195M (~21% mid) |
| Adj. EBITDA | ~$3M | ~$61M | ~$97M | $29.3M | $28β30M (~32% mid) |
| GAAP net income | ~β$50M | ~$26M | $99.3M* | $18.7M | N/D β not guided |
| Operating cash flow | low | ~$50M | $95.4M | $29.6M | N/D β not guided |
| Variable Marketing $ | N/D | ~$160M | ~$200M | $55.9M | $55β57M (~23% mid) |
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 166.6 | 156.6 | ~166 | 195.3 | 190.9 |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 22.5 | 22.0 | 25.1 | 25.1 | 29.3 |
| Net income ($M) | 8.0 | 14.7 | 18.9 | 57.8 | 18.7 |
| Cash EOP ($M) | ~125 | 148.2 | ~165 | ~170 | 178.5 |
Business model β insurance lead-generation marketplace
Automotive insurance ~$172M Q1'26 (~90% rev) π’ ramping Core vertical, +13% YoY. Driven by major auto carriers re-entering growth mode after the 2021β23 downturn. The engine of the business β and its single biggest concentration risk. Home & renters insurance ~$18.5M Q1'26 (~10% rev) π’ ramping Fastest-growing segment, +33% YoY. Strategic diversification away from auto. Still small but the key lever to reduce cyclicality if it scales. AI & growth solutions embedded / not broken out π‘ to be proven Management is reframing EVER as a "growth solutions partner" with AI integrated into matching and operations. Optionality, not yet a separate revenue line.
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
SWOT analysis
- +Zero debt, $178.5M net cash, strong free cash flow
- +~53% ROE β capital-light, high return on capital
- +Record adjusted EBITDA, margin expanding 13.5% β 15.4%
- +Consistent guidance beats; credible 7-year execution track record
- +Active $50M buyback partly offsetting stock-comp dilution
- β~90% revenue concentration in the auto-insurance vertical
- βRevenue inherently cyclical, tied to carrier ad budgets
- βNo insider buying; controlled-company governance structure
- βFY2025 headline net income flattered by one-off tax benefit
- βHome & renters vertical scaling at 33% YoY β diversification
- βOrganic path to $1B revenue in 2β3 years, no M&A needed
- βAI integration in matching/operations as efficiency lever
- βRe-rating potential if growth proves structural, not cyclical
- !AI disintermediation of lead-gen (Insurify scare, Feb 2026)
- !Reversal of the auto-insurance ad cycle (2021β23 precedent)
- !Short interest ~14.5%, nearly tripled in a quarter
- !Stock down ~29% over 12 months despite rising earnings
Summary by assessment area
- Zero debt, $178.5M cash, strong cash conversion
- Record adjusted EBITDA, ~15% margin and rising
- ~53% ROE β clear QUALITY signal
- ~90% auto-vertical concentration
- Revenue cyclical, dependent on carrier budgets
- Diversification underway but still early
- FV ~$27 vs price ~$18.86 β material upside (~43%)
- 6.7x derived multiple, below 7.2β8.5x peer range (concentration discount)
- Base case modestly below analyst consensus ($30β35)
Sources: EverQuote 8-K and 10-Q filings for Q1 2026 and FY2025 (SEC EDGAR); Q1 2026 earnings press release and call transcript (May 4, 2026); company investor materials. Market data (2026-05-17, last close 2026-05-14, verified across TradingView and Kraken): EVER ~$18.86, market cap ~$665M, 52-week range ~$13.88β$28.73, ~36M shares outstanding. Short interest ~14.5% of shares outstanding (~5.24M shares, NASDAQ/StockAnalysis). Analyst consensus average target ~$30β35 (May 2026, range $23β40), notably above current price. Peer multiples (MediaAlpha, QuinStreet, NerdWallet) are approximate, based on publicly reported figures. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.