GoodRx Holdings, Inc. (GDRX) - Due Diligence

hourglass

Loading…

Preparing the latest DD data, styles and content.

73OpportunityDD: Jul 30, 2026Analyst: 69

paidPrice at analysis date

USD 3.22 (30/07/2026)

domainMkt cap

$1.09B

pie_chartShares

338.68M

candlestick_chart52W

$1.77-$5.81

trending_downShort interest

9.5%

INFONASDAQHealth Information Services697 employeesFounded 2011

Verdict: Moderately Attractive — Event-driven, catalyst-dependent

Profitable digital pharmacy discount platform (2026E EBITDA ≥$230M) trading at ~4.7x EV/EBITDA, near the low end of health-tech peers. Legacy Prescription Transactions revenue is eroding (-4% YoY Q1 2026) but Pharma Manufacturer Solutions is compounding at +82% YoY on the back of GLP-1 self-pay programs (Wegovy HD, Ozempic pill, Foundayo). Q2 earnings on Aug 5, 2026 is a hard, dated re-rating catalyst; three analysts have raised price targets in the last 90 days. Asymmetry ratio ~2.7x (bull 117% / bear 43%) — borderline on the "hard-floor" test because equity value rests on EBITDA multiple, not on hard assets.

📊 DIANALITICS RESEARCH INDEXCompany & Thesis Assessment Score /100 — updated 2026-07-30

GoodRx Holdings (GDRX)

Digital Healthcare / Health Information Services · NASDAQ · Santa Monica, CA

"Profitable platform, ambiguous asymmetry — catalyst-priced but not deeply dislocated."

Positive EBITDA Pharma Direct +82% YoY Legacy Rx -4% YoY Aug 5 earnings catalyst Net debt 1.2x EBITDA

Fin. strength

/20 pts

EBITDA/FCF

/15 pts

Debt/leverage

/15 pts

Stage/business

/15 pts

Catalysts

/10 pts

Reg. risk

/8 pts

Risk/reward

/7 pts

Management

/5 pts

Sector/macro

/3 pts

Compliance

/2 pts

💡 Fair Value Estimate — EV/EBITDA Sum-of-Parts by Segment

Fair value base case

USD 4.35

Range: USD 1.85-USD 7.00

Price at analysis date: USD 3.22 (30/07/2026)

Base upside/downside: +35%

Segment EV/EBITDA SotP applied to FY26E EBITDA guidance ≥$230M (management-provided, not internally estimated). Multiples derived from peer median 8x with segment-level adjustments: Prescription Transactions at 5.5x (below median on secular decline), Pharma Direct at 12x (growth premium, 82% YoY Q1), Subscriptions at 10x (recurring stability). Implied blended multiple 7.5x. Cross-check on EV/Revenue 2.20x matches slow-growth health-tech peers. Fair value corresponds to +35% upside vs current $3.22. Asymmetry ratio: bull 117% / bear 43% = 2.72x — passes 2.5x threshold but downside 43% marginally exceeds the 35-40% ceiling of the ASIMMETRIA screen, so the setup is best characterized as "moderately asymmetric event-driven" rather than a deep dislocation. ⚠️ Not investment advice.

Component	Assumption	USD/share
Prescription Transactions (legacy)	$140M FY26E EBITDA × 5.5x EV/EBITDA (declining segment, discount to peer median)	+2.27
Pharma Manufacturer Solutions	$55M FY26E EBITDA × 12x EV/EBITDA (Pharma Direct +82% YoY Q1, high-growth premium)	+1.95
Subscriptions (Gold + Companion)	$28M FY26E EBITDA × 10x EV/EBITDA (stable recurring revenue)	+0.83
Other (Telehealth / GoodRx Care)	$7M FY26E EBITDA × 5x EV/EBITDA (small, low visibility)	+0.10
Net debt adjustment	($273M cash − $545M debt) / 338.68M shares	−0.80
FV base case	Sum of components (2.27 + 1.95 + 0.83 + 0.10 − 0.80)	≈ $4.35

Bull

$6.50–$7.50

Probability: 30%

Q2 beat + FY26 EBITDA raised to ~$260M. Pharma Direct scales to $300-400M revenue by FY27 as GLP-1 self-pay demand accelerates (Wegovy HD, Ozempic pill, Foundayo). Blended multiple re-rates to 10x → equity value ~$2.4-2.5B → $7.00-$7.50/share.

Base

$4.00–$4.70

Probability: 45%

Q2 in-line. FY26 EBITDA hits guidance ~$230M. Pharma Direct grows 40-50% (offsets 5-8% legacy decline). Blended 7.5x multiple. Modest re-rate from current 4.7x on multiple catalysts (Citi, TD Cowen upgrades) but no acceleration.

Bear

$1.85–$2.40

Probability: 25%

Q2 miss / GLP-1 self-pay demand disappoints (competition from HIMS/direct manufacturer channels). FY26 EBITDA compresses to $180-200M. Legacy Rx declines accelerate to -10%. Multiple contracts to 4-5x → $1.85-$2.40/share (near 52W low $1.77).

Methodology: Segment EV/EBITDA SotP applied to FY26E EBITDA guidance ≥$230M (management-provided, not internally estimated). Multiples derived from peer median 8x with segment-level adjustments: Prescription Transactions at 5.5x (below median on secular decline), Pharma Direct at 12x (growth premium, 82% YoY Q1), Subscriptions at 10x (recurring stability). Implied blended multiple 7.5x. Cross-check on EV/Revenue 2.20x matches slow-growth health-tech peers. Fair value corresponds to +35% upside vs current $3.22. Asymmetry ratio: bull 117% / bear 43% = 2.72x — passes 2.5x threshold but downside 43% marginally exceeds the 35-40% ceiling of the ASIMMETRIA screen, so the setup is best characterized as "moderately asymmetric event-driven" rather than a deep dislocation. ⚠️ Not investment advice. Not investment advice.

check_circle

✅ Near-term earnings catalyst: Q2 2026 print on Aug 5, 2026

Q2 reports Tuesday Aug 5, 2026 (T+6 days). Citi added an "upside 30-day catalyst watch" on July 23, 2026 with a $4 PT (Buy). TD Cowen (Buy $4) and Goldman Sachs (Neutral $3.50) both raised targets in the last 2 months. Pharma Direct grew +82% YoY in Q1 (Wegovy HD launch, Ozempic pill, Foundayo, Zepbound KwikPen); if the segment prints similar growth in Q2, FY26 EBITDA guidance (currently ≥$230M) is likely to be raised, triggering a re-rating. Miss/mixed print resets multiple to trough (~$2.20–$2.60 zone).

⚠️ Methodology note: [DISLOCATION] screen selected GDRX because current price ($3.22) is 45% below the 52W high ($5.81) despite improving fundamentals and multiple analyst upgrades — classic setup for asymmetric re-rating on a dated catalyst (Aug 5 earnings). The asymmetry gate is only borderline passed: downside to bear case (-43%) exceeds the 35-40% ceiling; the fair value in this DD is derived bottom-up from segment EV/EBITDA, not reverse-engineered from the screening thesis.

📊 Capital Structure · Short Interest · Buyback & Dilution

🟡 Short Interest

~9.5%

~32M shares short vs 338.68M outstanding (moderate range). Days-to-cover ~4-5 days on average volume ~1.5M. Not squeeze-primed but shows lingering bearish view on legacy Rx trajectory.

🟢 Share dilution (1Y)

−4.2%

Shares outstanding reduced from ~354M to 338.68M via active buyback. Management has repurchased ~$210M of stock since 2023 (weighted avg ~$5/share, above current). Signals capital-return discipline.

🟢 Buyback

$100M

$100M authorization active as of Q1 2026 (~9% of market cap). ~$25M repurchased in Q1 at ~$3.10 avg. Continued execution supports floor near $2.80-$3.00.

Short Interest — context

GDRX — 9.5%

9.5%

Moderate short interest reflects the market's split view: shorts betting on legacy Prescription Transactions decline outpacing Pharma Direct growth, longs betting on GLP-1 pill/HD launches driving segment mix shift. A Q2 beat could trigger modest short-covering; a miss deepens the trade. Insider governance note: Chief Accounting Officer Romin Nabiey resigned April 3, 2026 — cited as personal reasons, no restatement, but worth monitoring for continuity of financial reporting quality.

$Financial analysis — FY 2025 & 2026E

Revenue TTM

$787.9M

−1.2% YoY (legacy Rx decline)

Adj. EBITDA FY26E

≥$230M

Guidance reaffirmed Q1 2026

Net Debt

$272M

~1.2x FY26E EBITDA

Pharma Direct YoY

+82%

Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025

Item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026E	Guidance
Revenue ($M)	750	792	797	~790-810	flat to +2%
Adj. EBITDA ($M)	178	195	220	≥230	≥$230M
Adj. EBITDA margin	23.7%	24.6%	27.6%	~29%	expansion
Net Income ($M)	−9	16	30	~25-35	positive
Cash + ST Investments ($M)	662	324	262	~275	—
LT Debt ($M)	676	521	483	~545	refinance to 2028+
Shares Outstanding (M)	394	371	354	339	continued buyback

Note: FY2026E is management guidance blended with consensus. Q1 2026 net income $20.56M (source: stockanalysis.com, 2026-07-29). Revenue is essentially flat but EBITDA margin is expanding as high-margin Pharma Direct scales faster than lower-margin legacy Rx declines.

Quarterly dynamics — last 5 quarters (source: company filings, StockAnalysis, StockTitan)
Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026
Revenue ($M)	202.5	200.3	195.4	198.7	194.4
Adj. EBITDA margin %	22.1%	23.5%	25.8%	26.7%	18.5%
Net income ($M)	6.2	7.4	8.9	7.9	20.6
End-of-period cash ($M)	320	295	278	262	273

Financial position and sustainability

Net leverage (Debt/EBITDA)

1.2x

EBITDA margin FY26E

~29%

Pharma Direct % of revenue (est.)

~28%

Cash coverage of debt

50%

account_tree

Business model — Digital prescription savings platform in transition

A cash-generating platform pivoting from transaction fees to pharma-funded programs

GoodRx built the largest US consumer-facing prescription price-comparison app (~25M monthly visitors, ~6-7M annual paying users). The core "Prescription Transactions" model charges Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) a fee each time a consumer uses a GoodRx coupon at the pharmacy counter. This legacy business is in secular decline (-4 to -8% YoY) as PBMs squeeze coupon economics. The strategic pivot — accelerating in 2025-26 — is toward "Pharma Manufacturer Solutions" (branded Pharma Direct), where pharma companies pay GoodRx to steer eligible cash-pay patients directly to their branded drugs (Wegovy HD, Ozempic pill, Zepbound, Foundayo). This segment grew +82% YoY in Q1 2026 and carries structurally higher margins. Adjacent bets: Subscriptions (Gold, Companion at $14.99/month) and Telehealth (GoodRx Care).

Prescription Transactions (legacy) ~$500-540M FY26E (~68% rev) 🔴 declining Coupon fees paid by PBMs. Revenue -4 to -8% YoY. High margin (~35% EBITDA) but structurally shrinking as PBMs renegotiate. Not a growth engine — a cash cow being milked to fund the pivot. Pharma Manufacturer Solutions ~$220-260M FY26E (~30% rev) 🟢 ramping fast Pharma-funded programs steering cash-pay patients to branded drugs. Wegovy HD $399/mo, Ozempic pill, Zepbound KwikPen, Foundayo (Eli Lilly), Viatris 85% savings deal. +82% YoY Q1 2026. Higher structural margin (~25-30% EBITDA), long runway on GLP-1 wave. Subscriptions + Care ~$70-90M FY26E (~10% rev) 🟡 scaling GoodRx Gold ($9.99/mo) + newly launched GoodRx Companion ($14.99/mo, May 2026) + Telehealth (GoodRx Care). Recurring revenue, stable. Companion is a fresh product test; early traction data due Q2 print.

gavel

Legal, regulatory and risk analysis

Legacy Prescription Transactions decline

High

Core revenue segment (~68% of total) shrinking 4-8% YoY as PBMs compress coupon economics. If decline accelerates to -10%+, Pharma Direct growth cannot offset and total revenue turns negative.

GLP-1 self-pay disintermediation

High

Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly increasingly launching direct-to-consumer portals (NovoCare, LillyDirect) that bypass intermediaries. If manufacturers scale their own channels, Pharma Direct growth stalls or reverses.

Leverage & refinancing

Moderate

$545M long-term debt, 1.2x net leverage on FY26E EBITDA. Manageable in base case but constrains M&A optionality. Refinancing window 2027-28 will test capital markets access.

Governance — CAO resignation

Moderate

Chief Accounting Officer Romin Nabiey resigned April 3, 2026, cited as personal reasons with no restatement or SEC issue. Not itself a red flag but worth tracking for continuity of financial reporting quality.

Competitive intensity — HIMS & peers

Moderate

Hims & Hers is scaling aggressively in GLP-1 self-pay (compounded semaglutide, oral GLP-1 partnerships) with strong brand and DTC reach. Competition compresses potential pricing power in Pharma Direct.

Positive — Pharma Direct EBITDA mix shift

Positive

Pharma Direct segment is higher margin AND faster growing than legacy Rx. As mix shifts (Pharma Direct went from ~10% to ~28% of revenue in ~2 years), consolidated EBITDA margin expands even at flat revenue.

Positive — active buyback + FCF generation

Positive

$100M active repurchase authorization; ~$25M executed in Q1 2026 at ~$3.10/share. Share count down 4.2% YoY. Provides mechanical floor near $2.80-$3.00 during weakness.

Positive — dated Q2 earnings catalyst

Positive

Q2 2026 print on Aug 5, 2026 is a hard, dated re-rating event. Three analysts have raised targets in the last 90 days (Citi $4, TD Cowen $4, Goldman $3.50). Beat + guidance raise triggers upside; miss resets multiple to trough.

article

SWOT analysis

Strengths

+Profitable platform: FY26E EBITDA ≥$230M, ~29% margin
+Largest US consumer Rx savings brand (~25M monthly visitors)
+Pharma Direct segment +82% YoY, high-margin growth engine
+Active $100M buyback, share count -4.2% YoY (capital discipline)
+Trades at 4.7x FY26E EV/EBITDA — cheapest health-tech peer

Weaknesses

−Legacy Prescription Transactions declining 4-8% YoY
−Total revenue essentially flat (-1.2% TTM)
−Net debt $272M limits balance-sheet flexibility
−Q1 2026 EBITDA margin compressed to 18.5% (vs 26.7% Q4 2025) — mix & investment
−Recent CAO resignation adds governance noise

Opportunities

→GLP-1 self-pay pill launches (Wegovy HD, Ozempic pill, Foundayo) still ramping
→GoodRx Companion subscription ($14.99/mo) as recurring-revenue lever
→Pharma Direct segment could reach 40%+ of revenue by FY28
→Multiple analyst upgrades in last 90 days signal potential re-rating
→Aug 5, 2026 Q2 earnings — dated catalyst, guidance raise possible

Threats

!Novo Nordisk/Eli Lilly direct-to-consumer channels (NovoCare, LillyDirect)
!HIMS aggressive GLP-1 push (compounded semaglutide, oral partnerships)
!PBM consolidation continues to squeeze coupon economics
!GLP-1 patent expiry / compounded market disruption post-2027
!Refinancing window 2027-28 in a potentially tighter credit environment

article

Summary by assessment area

🟡 Financial risk — Moderate

FY26E EBITDA ≥$230M, margin expanding to ~29%
Net debt 1.2x EBITDA — manageable but non-trivial
$100M active buyback provides mechanical support
Refinancing window 2027-28 needs monitoring

🟡 Business risk — Mixed / transitioning

Legacy Rx declining but still profitable cash cow
Pharma Direct +82% YoY offsets legacy erosion
GLP-1 self-pay wave is the pivot's key driver
Competitive threat from HIMS and manufacturer DTC

🔵 Event risk — Binary near-term

Q2 2026 earnings Aug 5, 2026 — hard catalyst T+6 days
3 analyst PT upgrades in last 90 days (Citi, TD Cowen, GS)
Beat + guidance raise → re-rate toward $4.50-5.00
Miss → multiple compresses toward $2.20-2.60

2026-08-05 earnings

Q2 2026 Earnings Release + FY26 Guidance Update

short-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

Confirmed date: Tuesday Aug 5, 2026 (T+6 days). First quarter to fully reflect Wegovy HD, Ozempic pill and Foundayo launches. Citi 30-day catalyst watch expires ~Aug 22. Beat + guidance raise triggers re-rate toward $4.50-5.00; miss resets to $2.20-2.60.

2026-08-05 operational

Pharma Direct YoY growth disclosure (guided >50%)

short-term Impact: High Direction: Bullish

Q1 showed +82% YoY. If Q2 sustains >60% YoY, segment reaches $250-280M annualized run-rate, ~30% of revenue. Would validate the entire re-rating thesis and support multiple expansion toward 8-9x EV/EBITDA.

2026-08-05 product

GoodRx Companion first full-quarter subscriber metrics

short-term Impact: Medium Direction: Bullish

Companion at $14.99/mo launched May 27, 2026. Q2 print will contain first meaningful subscriber traction data. Company needs to demonstrate that Companion complements (not cannibalizes) legacy Gold to justify the subscription pivot narrative.

2026-08-22 capital_markets

Citi upside 30-day catalyst watch window ends

short-term Impact: Medium Direction: Neutral

Citi added the watch on July 23, 2026 with a $4 PT (Buy). Ends around Aug 22. If Q2 print delivers, Citi may raise PT further; if not, the catalyst watch closes and momentum-driven flows fade.

2026-11-05 earnings

Q3 2026 Earnings Release (estimated)

medium-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

Estimated early Nov based on historical pattern. Second consecutive quarter to test the Pharma Direct thesis. By Q3 the market will require sustained >50% YoY segment growth to hold any re-rate above 7x EV/EBITDA.

2026-08-05 guidance

FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance refresh (currently ≥$230M)

short-term Impact: High Direction: Binary

Guidance raise to $240-250M (bull) drives base FV toward $4.60-4.80; reaffirmation at ≥$230M is neutral (~$4.35 FV); lowered guidance triggers multiple compression toward bear scenario ($2.20-2.60).

2026-08-05 capital_markets

Buyback pace and $100M authorization utilization

short-term Impact: Medium Direction: Bullish

~$25M executed in Q1 at ~$3.10/share. If Q2 buyback pace accelerated at these low prices, signals management conviction and provides mechanical floor near $2.80-3.00. Watch for authorization refresh.

{ "verdict_label": {"it": "Giudizio: Moderatamente Attraente — Event-driven", "en": "Verdict: Moderately Attractive — Event-driven"}, "verdict_text": {"it": "Piattaforma profittevole di sconti sui farmaci (EBITDA 2026E ≥$230M) a 4.7x EV/EBITDA. Rx legacy in declino compensato da Pharma Direct +82% YoY. Q2 earnings 5 agosto 2026 e' catalizzatore chiave.", "en": "Profitable prescription-savings platform (2026E EBITDA ≥$230M) at 4.7x EV/EBITDA. Legacy Rx decline offset by Pharma Direct +82% YoY. Q2 earnings Aug 5, 2026 is the key catalyst."}, "bull_points": [ {"it": "Pharma Direct +82% YoY: onda GLP-1 self-pay (Wegovy HD, Ozempic pill, Foundayo) sostiene mix shift", "en": "Pharma Direct +82% YoY: GLP-1 self-pay wave (Wegovy HD, Ozempic pill, Foundayo) sustains mix shift"}, {"it": "3 upgrade analisti in 90 giorni (Citi $4, TD Cowen $4, Goldman $3.50) + buyback $100M attivo", "en": "3 analyst upgrades in 90 days (Citi $4, TD Cowen $4, Goldman $3.50) + active $100M buyback"}, {"it": "Sconto 4.7x EV/EBITDA vs peer median 18x: qualsiasi accelerazione ricavi triggera re-rating", "en": "4.7x EV/EBITDA vs peer median 18x: any revenue acceleration triggers re-rating"} ], "bear_points": [ {"it": "Rx legacy -4/-8% YoY: se accelera oltre -10%, Pharma Direct non riesce a compensare", "en": "Legacy Rx -4/-8% YoY: if decline accelerates past -10%, Pharma Direct cannot offset"}, {"it": "Downside al bear -43% supera soglia asimmetria 35-40%: setup solo moderatamente asimmetrico", "en": "Downside to bear -43% exceeds the 35-40% asymmetry ceiling: setup only moderately asymmetric"}, {"it": "Consensus $3.21 = prezzo attuale: mercato non sconta piu' upside significativo", "en": "Consensus $3.21 = current price: market prices no significant upside anymore"} ], "risks": [ {"it": "Novo/Lilly DTC (NovoCare, LillyDirect) potrebbero bypassare GoodRx sui GLP-1", "en": "Novo/Lilly DTC channels (NovoCare, LillyDirect) may bypass GoodRx on GLP-1"}, {"it": "HIMS scala aggressivamente GLP-1 self-pay: pressione competitiva su Pharma Direct", "en": "HIMS scaling GLP-1 self-pay aggressively: competitive pressure on Pharma Direct"}, {"it": "Net debt 1.2x EBITDA + refinancing window 2027-28 vincolano flessibilita' finanziaria", "en": "Net debt 1.2x EBITDA + 2027-28 refinancing window constrain financial flexibility"} ] }

Sources & Disclaimer

Sources: GoodRx Q1 2026 press release (BusinessWire, 2026-05-07); StockAnalysis.com real-time quote (verified 2026-07-30); TipRanks / The Fly analyst notes (Citi 2026-07-23, TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo); Yahoo Finance; Macrotrends; StockTitan filings archive. Market data — last verified close 2026-07-29 (T-1): GDRX $3.22 (previous close $3.12), market cap ~$1.09B, 52W range $1.77–$5.81, 338.68M shares outstanding. Short interest ~9.5% (moderate). Next reported catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings Aug 5, 2026. ⚠️ This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.