IBEX passes the FATTORIALE quality screen: small-cap size, forward P/E near 10x, low quoted beta, net cash, positive free cash flow, share repurchases, and five straight quarters of double-digit revenue growth through Q3 FY2026. The independent valuation is more restrained than the screen: base fair value is $43.00, or 16.1% above the $37.04 latest confirmed close, because the market already prices much of the operating turnaround and the analyst target is only $40.00.
FV uses FY2027E adjusted EBITDA and a peer-derived EV/EBITDA bridge, then adds net cash and explicit haircuts for working capital/capex, client concentration and governance optics. Cross-check: FY2027E EPS of $3.63 at 11.5x implies $41.75/share, within 3% of the $43.00 base FV. Sensitivity: each 1.0x EBITDA multiple changes value by about $6.57/share before haircuts. Not investment advice.
| Component | Assumption | USD/share |
|---|---|---|
| Core CX outsourcing EV | $88M FY2027E adjusted EBITDA x 6.4x / 13.39M shares | +42.06 |
| AI enablement premium | 0.8x multiple uplift x $88M FY2027E EBITDA / 13.39M shares | +5.26 |
| Net cash floor | $15.4M cash - $1.4M debt at Q3 FY2026 / 13.39M shares | +1.05 |
| Working-capital / capex reserve | $18M reserve for higher FY2026 capex and receivable build / 13.39M shares | -1.34 |
| Client concentration haircut | 7% haircut x $630M modeled equity value / 13.39M shares | -3.29 |
| Insider-sale governance haircut | $10M qualitative reserve for May 2026 Form 144/Form 4 selling / 13.39M shares | -0.75 |
| FV base case | Explicit sum, rounded: $42.06 + $5.26 + $1.05 - $1.34 - $3.29 - $0.75 | 43.00 |
Balance-sheet risk is low. At Q3 FY2026, cash was $15.4M and total debt was about $1.4M, leaving $14.0M net cash. The bigger capital-structure issue is not leverage, but whether rising capex and growth investments keep free cash flow conversion high.
| Item | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | FY2027E | Guidance / basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $508.6M | $558.3M | $640.0M | $678.5M | FY2026 company midpoint; FY2027 analyst consensus |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $65.2M | $72.0M | $83.0M | ~$88.0M model | FY2026 company midpoint; FY2027 DD model |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.10 | $2.75 | ~$3.52 | $3.63 | FY2026E approximates 9M actual plus Q4 consensus; FY2027 consensus |
| Free cash flow | N/D | $45.7M CFO | $35M-$45M model | $40M-$50M model | Capex step-up limits FCF despite EBITDA growth |
| Net cash | N/D | $13.7M | $14M-$20M model | $20M+ model | Depends on Q4 buyback and capex timing |
| Metric | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2026 | Q3 FY2026 | Q4 FY2026E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 147.1 | 151.2 | 164.2 | 164.4 | 160.0-163.2 |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 20.5 | 19.5 | 20.7 | 22.0 | ~20.8 model |
| Adjusted EPS ($) | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.85-0.86 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 23.0 | 8.0 | N/D | 6.6 | N/D |
Business model - AI-enabled customer experience outsourcing
HealthTech +53.7% YoY in Q3 FY2026 ramping The highest-signal growth vertical in Q3. Healthcare workflow complexity supports outsourcing demand, but regulatory and privacy execution must stay clean. Technology +42.6% YoY in Q3 FY2026 ramping Technology clients are a growth source and a risk source: AI adoption can increase IBEX's value or pressure human-agent volumes. Travel, Transportation & Logistics +15.1% YoY in Q3 FY2026 solid Cyclical but still growing. Travel/logistics demand can be sensitive to macro conditions and consumer volumes. Retail & E-commerce +8.3% YoY in Q3 FY2026 steady Seasonality and client budget pressure matter, but e-commerce support remains a large addressable market. Digital acquisition continued Q3 growth option Higher-value customer acquisition services can lift mix if IBEX proves measurable ROI and avoids platform concentration. Sierra AI partnership signed May 2026 to prove Potential differentiator: IBEX combines CX operations with Sierra's conversational AI. The premium is capped until revenue contribution is disclosed.
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
SWOT analysis
- +Five consecutive double-digit growth quarters through Q3 FY2026.
- +Net cash balance sheet and active repurchases.
- +Adjusted EBITDA margin around 13% with improving scale.
- +Sierra AI partnership gives credible AI transformation angle.
- −Small analyst base and limited target-price support.
- −Service revenue can be contract- and client-concentration sensitive.
- −Q4 FY2026 full release not available in indexed sources at run time.
- −Insider sales dilute the clean governance narrative.
- →FY2027 guidance can prove the growth runway is durable.
- →AI orchestration can lift win rates and margins.
- →HealthTech and Technology verticals are scaling quickly.
- →Buybacks at single-digit to low-double-digit P/E can be accretive.
- !AI deflation compresses agent volumes and pricing.
- !Large-client churn or insourcing reverses growth.
- !Geopolitical/labor events disrupt offshore centers.
- !Capex and receivables absorb cash faster than expected.
Summary by assessment area
- Revenue, EPS and EBITDA all improved through Q3 FY2026.
- Net cash and buybacks provide downside support.
- $43.00 base FV implies +16.1% upside.
- Consensus target of $40.00 keeps conviction below the best DDs.
- Need Q4 release and FY2027 outlook to validate rerating.
- AI must expand margins, not cannibalize volumes.
Sources: IBEX Q1 FY2026, Q2 FY2026 and Q3 FY2026 company releases; IBEX investor calendar and news releases; StockAnalysis IBEX quote/statistics page; Yahoo Finance IBEX quote page; MarketBeat IBEX analyst forecast, short-interest and insider-trade pages; Benzinga insider-trade search; Finanzen consensus estimate table; StockAnalysis/MarketBeat/Yahoo peer pages for TASK and CNXC. Price line used: IBEX $37.04 close on Sep. 9, 2026 from Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis; MarketBeat showed $37.22 intraday on Sep. 10, 2026 at 2:39 PM ET. Shares outstanding 13.39M imply market cap of about $496M, matching quoted market-cap sources. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.