Myriad Genetics is a diagnostics turnaround, not a clean growth story. The company has real scale, with 2026 guidance of $770M-$790M revenue and $115.2M cash at June 30, 2026, but the Q2 miss reset credibility: revenue fell 11% year over year, guidance was cut from the prior $860M-$880M range, adjusted EBITDA guidance was suspended, and shareholder-rights firms began investigating the disclosure fallout. Base-case fair value is $4.00 versus the latest $3.18 close: upside exists, but it depends on reimbursement stabilization, cost execution and no unfavorable use of the $200M shelf.
primary method is product-category EV/revenue SOTP using FY2026 guidance midpoint. Implied base EV/revenue before discrete reserves is about 0.64x, versus MYGN's current lease-adjusted EV/forward revenue near 0.50x and peer references from FLGT, QDEL, NEO and DGX. Cross-check: the $3.77 analyst average target is 6% below the $4.00 base FV, within the +/-25% sanity range; recent dated targets include Stephens $3 on 2026-08-18, Wells Fargo $3 on 2026-08-03 and TD Cowen $4 on 2026-07-31. Sensitivity: every 0.10x change in total EV/revenue on $780M revenue changes equity value by about $0.82/sh; $50M of shelf issuance at low prices would be materially dilutive. Not investment advice.
| Component | Assumption | USD/share |
|---|---|---|
| Cancer Care Continuum EV | $468M FY2026E revenue x 0.77x EV/revenue / 95.65M shares | +3.78 |
| Prenatal Health EV | $162M FY2026E revenue x 0.45x EV/revenue / 95.65M shares | +0.76 |
| Mental Health EV | $150M FY2026E revenue x 0.55x EV/revenue / 95.65M shares | +0.86 |
| Cash | $115.2M cash and equivalents at 2026-06-30 / 95.65M shares | +1.20 |
| Long-term debt | -$120.7M long-term debt at 2026-06-30 / 95.65M shares | -1.26 |
| Operating lease liabilities | -$89.8M operating lease liabilities at 2026-06-30 / 95.65M shares | -0.94 |
| Shelf, legal and realignment reserve | -$26.7M reserve: $200M S-3 overhang x 7.5% plus $11.7M legal/realignment buffer, / 95.65M shares | -0.28 |
| Dilution reserve | -3.0% equity haircut on $4.11 pre-dilution value from share-based plans and +2.46% YoY share count | -0.12 |
| FV base case | 3.78 + 0.76 + 0.86 + 1.20 - 1.26 - 0.94 - 0.28 - 0.12 = 4.00 | $4.00 |
Short interest is moderate: it confirms skepticism but does not by itself create a high-conviction squeeze case. Insider checks found no open-market insider sale above $500K in the last 12 months; recent notable insider activity included CEO Samraat Raha buying about $200K of shares in March 2026 and S. Louise Phanstiel buying about $224K in February 2026.
| Item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | H1 2026 | Guidance 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 753.2 | 837.6 | 824.5 | 391.1 | 770-790 |
| Gross profit ($M) | 517.0 | 585.4 | 576.6 | 264.6 | Adj. GM 66%-67% |
| Operating income / loss ($M) | -257.4 | -123.5 | -387.2 | -69.6 | N/D - EBITDA guide suspended |
| Net income / loss ($M) | -263.3 | -127.3 | -365.9 | -77.3 | N/D |
| Cash ($M) | N/D | 102.4 | 149.6 | 115.2 | Liquidity focus after Ascend actions |
| Debt + leases ($M) | N/D | N/D | 209.8 | 210.5 | Key equity-value drag |
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 213.1 | 206.0 | 209.5 | 200.4 | 190.7 |
| Gross margin % | 71.2% | N/D | N/D | 68.7% | 66.6% |
| Net loss ($M) | -330.5 | N/D | N/D | -34.1 | -43.2 |
| End-of-period cash ($M) | 74.4 | N/D | 149.6 | 124.4 | 115.2 |
Business model - three product franchises under payer pressure
Cancer Care Continuum ~$468M FY2026E (60% of revenue) core Includes MyRisk, BRACAnalysis CDx, MyChoice CDx, Prolaris + AI, Precise Tumor and Precise MRD. Q2 revenue was $114.1M and volume grew 6%, but reimbursement pressure cut hereditary cancer revenue. Prenatal Health ~$162M FY2026E (21% of revenue) weak Includes Foresight, Prequel, FirstGene and SneakPeek. Q2 revenue fell 16% YoY as volume declined 9%; FirstGene and CONNECTOR study progress are needed to rebuild confidence. Mental Health ~$150M FY2026E (19% of revenue) stabilizing GeneSight revenue was $36.8M in Q2, down 3% YoY, as 4% volume growth was offset by a 6% decline in average revenue per test and aged-receivable write-offs.
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
SWOT analysis
- +FY2025 revenue of $824.5M and H1 2026 revenue of $391.1M.
- +Large installed diagnostics brand across oncology, prenatal and mental health.
- +Cash of $115.2M at June 30, 2026 provides operating flexibility.
- +Cancer Care Continuum volume grew 6% in Q2 despite reimbursement friction.
- −Q2 revenue fell 11% year over year.
- −Adjusted EBITDA guidance was suspended.
- −H1 2026 free cash flow was negative.
- −Debt plus lease liabilities limit residual equity value.
- →Ascend efficiency work can restore margin visibility.
- →Precise MRD breast MolDX review may expand reimbursed oncology use.
- →FirstGene launch and CONNECTOR study progress can repair prenatal narrative.
- →Even a small EV/revenue rerating has large per-share impact at this market cap.
- !Payer friction can keep average revenue per test under pressure.
- !Use of the $200M shelf at depressed prices would dilute upside.
- !Shareholder litigation noise can persist after the guidance reset.
- !If 2027 EBITDA does not recover, the equity may deserve a structurally lower multiple.
Summary by assessment area
- MYGN trades near 0.50x EV/FY2026E revenue.
- The discount is real, but so are the Q2 and payer issues.
- The next two quarters must show reimbursement stability.
- Ascend cost actions need measurable margin evidence.
- The $200M S-3 is the capital-market risk to watch.
- Shareholder investigations add noise after the guidance reset.
Sources: Myriad Genetics Q2 2026 earnings release dated July 30, 2026; Myriad Genetics Form 10-Q for quarter ended June 30, 2026 filed July 31, 2026; Myriad Genetics FY2025 Form 10-K filed February 24, 2026; Myriad Genetics February 24, 2026 Form S-3 shelf registration; Myriad Investor Relations page and August 27, 2026 Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference announcement; Investing.com, StockAnalysis and company IR price references checked on August 28, 2026; The Online Investor short-interest data as of July 31, 2026; TipRanks, Benzinga and StockAnalysis analyst-target snapshots; Bragar Eagel & Squire shareholder investigation page dated August 7, 2026; SEC Form 4 / proxy / 8-K searches for insider, director and management-change checks. Market data used: MYGN $3.18 latest regular-session close on 2026-08-27; 52-week range $2.74-$8.59; market cap about $304M; 95.65M shares outstanding; enterprise value about $393.7M. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.