Myriad Genetics Inc. (MYGN) - Due Diligence

hourglass

Loading…

Preparing the latest DD data, styles and content.

36RiskyDD: Aug 02, 2026Analyst: 36

paidPrice at analysis date

USD 2.86 (02/08/2026)

domainMkt cap

pie_chartShares

3.9

candlestick_chart52W

trending_downShort interest

8.4%

HIGHNASDAQHealth Care2700 employeesFounded 1991

Verdict: Caution — Post-guidance-cut distressed value, no visibility on stabilization

MYGN collapsed −45% over the past week after slashing FY26 revenue guidance to $770–790M (from $860–880M) and suspending adjusted EBITDA guidance entirely — the market is now pricing chronic payer-friction impairment. At $2.86 close (Jul 31), the stock trades at ~0.35x FY26E EV/Sales vs peer median ~2.0x, but that discount is warranted: revenue is shrinking (−11% Q2), FCF is negative (−$11.5M Q2), and management has no credible line-of-sight on when payer denials and prior-authorization headwinds stabilize. The high gross margin (66–67%) preserves optionality, but until the payer channel resets there is no floor. TD Cowen PT $4 (Aug 2026); Wells Fargo downgraded to "show me" story.

📊 DIANALITICS RESEARCH INDEXCompany & Thesis Assessment Score /100 — updated 2026-08-02

Myriad Genetics, Inc. (MYGN)

Molecular Diagnostics · NASDAQ · Salt Lake City

"High GM survivor, but revenue shrinking and EBITDA visibility gone. Distressed value trap risk."

−45% week EBITDA guide suspended Net debt −$95M GM 66–67% SI ~8%

Fin. strength

/20 pts

EBITDA/FCF

/15 pts

Debt/leverage

/15 pts

Stage/business

/15 pts

Catalysts

/10 pts

Reg. risk

/8 pts

Risk/reward

/7 pts

Management

/5 pts

Sector/macro

/3 pts

Compliance

/2 pts

💡 Fair Value Estimate — EV/Sales peer-derived (distressed diagnostics multiple)

Fair value base case

USD 3.90

Range: USD 1.50-USD 7.00

Price at analysis date: USD 2.86 (02/08/2026)

Base upside/downside: +36%

Method: EV/Sales peer-derived (primary). Implicit multiple 0.60x (within +/-8% of nominal 0.65x). DCF cross-check: $4.20 (within +8%). Sensitivity ±0.15x EV/S → ±$1.20/sh flagged. Multiple within peer range (0.65x–12x); position at lower end justified by unique combination of shrinking revenue + suspended EBITDA guidance + negative FCF. If Q3 2026 shows sequential stabilization, multiple can re-rate to 0.9–1.1x (base moves to $5–6).

Component	Assumption	USD/share
Core diagnostics business EV	$780M FY26E rev × 0.65x EV/Sales (distressed dx) / 95.65M sh	+5.30
Prolaris + tumor profiling growth option	20% prob × $50M NPV (Prolaris +12% grower) / 95.65M sh	+0.10
Cash + ST investments	$115.2M (Q2 2026) / 95.65M sh	+1.20
Total debt	−$210.5M / 95.65M sh (revolver + term loan)	−2.20
Payer-friction execution reserve	−$30M reserve for ongoing denial/AR risk / 95.65M sh	−0.30
SBC dilution reserve	~3%/yr dilution × equity × 3y NPV / 95.65M sh	−0.20
FV base case	Sum of components above (rounded)	≈ $3.90

Bull

$6.50–7.00

Probability: 20%

Payer friction proves transient. Q3/Q4 2026 shows sequential revenue stabilization. GeneSight recovers alternate payer coverage. Rev stabilizes ~$780M, GM 67%. Multiple re-rates to 1.1x EV/S. Reinstated adj EBITDA guidance triggers re-rating.

Base

$3.90

Probability: 45%

Payer friction chronic but bounded. FY26 lands mid-guide $780M. Adj EBITDA marginal negative. Multiple drifts 0.35x → 0.65x. Analyst PT clusters $4–5 area. Slow rehabilitation.

Bear

$1.50–2.00

Probability: 35%

Another guidance cut Q3/Q4 2026. Revenue falls further to $700M FY27. Cash burn accelerates. Covenants tightened on term loan. Class action re-filed. Multiple compresses to EMBC-adjacent 0.4x = $1.50–2.00.

Methodology: Method: EV/Sales peer-derived (primary). Implicit multiple 0.60x (within +/-8% of nominal 0.65x). DCF cross-check: $4.20 (within +8%). Sensitivity ±0.15x EV/S → ±$1.20/sh flagged. Multiple within peer range (0.65x–12x); position at lower end justified by unique combination of shrinking revenue + suspended EBITDA guidance + negative FCF. If Q3 2026 shows sequential stabilization, multiple can re-rate to 0.9–1.1x (base moves to $5–6). Not investment advice.

warning

🚨 Material event last 72 hours — guidance cut + EBITDA guidance suspended

On July 30, 2026 after-close, Myriad reported Q2 2026 revenue $190.7M (−11% YoY, vs consensus $206M), cut FY26 revenue guidance from $860–880M to $770–790M (≈−10% at midpoint), reduced GM guidance to 66–67%, and suspended adjusted EBITDA guidance . Root causes: elevated payer denial rates and prior-authorization requirements, $11M prior-period collections headwind, $4M aged AR write-off, weaker prenatal test trends. Stock fell 31.7% after-hours ($5.37 → $3.67) and continued lower through Friday Jul 31 close $2.86 (−47% week). TD Cowen cut PT to $4 (from $6); Wells Fargo downgraded citing "show me" story.

⚠️ Methodology note: Standard equity DD following a major dislocation event. Given the guidance suspension for adjusted EBITDA, fair value is derived via EV/Sales peer comparison with a distressed-diagnostics multiple. Given the fluid situation, wide fair-value range and asymmetric downside are explicit. This is NOT an "asymmetry" screening candidate — the setup fails the strict floor-first asymmetry gate (no hard cash floor: net debt −$95M; no clear catalyst timing for stabilization).

📊 Capital Structure · Short Interest · Buyback & Dilution

🟡 Short Interest

~8.4%

~8.0M shares short (Nasdaq mid-Jul 2026), 8.37% of shares outstanding, days-to-cover ~3.9. Moderate; likely to spike higher after the guidance cut given increased short interest attention.

🔵 Share dilution (YoY)

+3%

Shares out 95.65M vs ~93M year-ago = +3% dilution mainly from RSU vesting. Shelf S-3 filing on record (May 2026); potential capital raise risk if cash deteriorates further.

⚪ Buyback

No active buyback; cash preserved for operations and debt service. Given negative FCF and $210M debt, buyback is off the table until stabilization.

MYGN — 8.4% of shares

8.4%

Peer avg (NTRA, GH, EMBC)

~7.0%

Insider transactions (Form 4 last 12 months): Director Rashmi Kumar sold 15,000 shares on June 8, 2026 (~$100K at pre-cut prices). No large buys reported. Total insider activity net-negative but small in dollar terms. Class action: Prior GeneSight-related class action (2019 filing) was settled for $77.5M in Dec 2023 — resolved. Holzer & Holzer announced fresh investigation in June 2025 (pre-cut); after the Aug 2 guidance cut, class action risk re-escalates. S-3 shelf filed 2026 — potential capital raise risk.

💰

Financial Analysis

FY25 revenue

$862M

+7% YoY

FY26 guidance (cut)

$770–790M

−9% vs FY25

Q2'26 revenue

$190.7M

−11% YoY

Cash / Debt (Q2'26)

$115 / $211M

Net debt −$95M

FY (USD M)	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26E (guide)
Revenue	$754	$836	$862	$770–790
YoY growth	flat	+11%	+3%	−9%
Gross margin	67%	68%	69%	66–67%
GAAP net income	−$155	−$78	−$120	−$130 est.
Adj. EBITDA	~$3	~$25	~$35	SUSPENDED
Free cash flow	−$40	~$0	~$5	Negative
Cash + ST inv.	$130	$120	$115	$95–115 est.
Total debt	$0	$110	$210	$210

Quarterly trend — revenue, GM, net loss, cash (last 5 Qs)
Metric	Q2'25	Q3'25	Q4'25	Q1'26	Q2'26
Revenue ($M)	214	218	222	210	190.7
YoY growth	+6%	+5%	+3%	−2%	−11%
Gross margin	~69%	~69%	~68%	~68%	~66%
GAAP net loss ($M)	−28	−22	−35	−42	−43.2
Operating CF ($M)	~5	~10	~0	−5	−8.3
Cash ($M)	128	135	120	118	115.2

Revenue trend (FY26E)

−9% YoY

Gross margin (FY26E)

66–67%

FCF (FY26E)

Negative

Cash runway at burn rate

~2 years

account_tree

Business & Segments

Business overview & competitive position

MYGN is a multi-product molecular diagnostics company operating four franchises: Hereditary Cancer (BRACAnalysis, MyRisk), Prenatal (Foresight, Prequel, SneakPeek), Tumor Profiling (myChoice CDx, Prolaris, EndoPredict), and Pharmacogenomics (GeneSight). Core moat = decades of BRCA IP + payer contracts. Revenue mix roughly balanced with hereditary cancer largest (~40%). Facing structural headwinds: payer denial rates rising, prior-authorization requirements tightening, prenatal category softening, GeneSight de-coverage by UnitedHealthcare in Q1'25. Peer NTRA has captured leadership in MRD (Signatera) that MYGN missed.

Hereditary Cancer ~$320M FY26E (~41% rev) 🟡 flat BRACAnalysis + MyRisk. Grew +9% Q4'25, now facing volume/price pressure. Core cash generator, sticky payer relationships. GM ~72%. Prenatal ~$210M FY26E (~27% rev) 🔴 weakening Foresight, Prequel, SneakPeek. Grew +11% Q1'25, weakened in Q2'26. Direct competitor to NTRA's Panorama. Main source of Q2 miss. Tumor Profiling ~$160M FY26E (~20% rev) 🟢 growing Prolaris +12% Q4'25, myChoice CDx (BRCA + HRD), EndoPredict. One remaining growth engine. Prolaris is best asset. Pharmacogenomics (GeneSight) ~$90M FY26E (~12% rev) 🔴 impaired UnitedHealthcare coverage dropped Q1'25. Q2'25 rev $37.8M → Q4'25 $36.6M. Chronic payer battle. Trending down.

gavel

Risk Grid

Payer friction structural

CRITICAL

Q2 2026 revenue drop driven by higher denial rates and prior-authorization requirements. $11M prior-period collections headwind, $4M aged AR write-off. If this is structural (not transient), FY27 revenue could fall further.

Adj EBITDA guidance suspended

HIGH

Suspending adj EBITDA guidance is a red flag on management visibility. Signals inability to model near-term profitability. Historic loss of investor confidence, will pressure multiple until reinstated.

Net debt $95M + convertible risk

MEDIUM

$210M total debt vs $115M cash. Not immediately dangerous but combined with negative FCF and possible covenant tightening, could force capital raise. S-3 shelf on file.

NTRA / GH competitive pressure

HIGH

Natera dominant in MRD (Signatera) and prenatal (Panorama). Guardant Shield taking share in colon cancer screening. MYGN increasingly a legacy player without a next-gen growth franchise.

Class action re-filing risk

MEDIUM

Holzer & Holzer investigation filed Jun 2025. Post-Aug 2 guidance cut with EBITDA suspension likely triggers formal class action filing on management's Q4'25 / early 2026 guidance representations.

High gross margin preserves optionality

POSITIVE

66–67% GM even in distress. If revenue stabilizes at $780M, gross profit ~$520M covers opex + modest positive EBITDA. Provides real recovery optionality vs a low-GM distressed operator.

Real revenue base + IP moat

POSITIVE

$770M+ revenue, decades of BRCA IP, 300k+ physician relationships, sticky test menu. Not a going concern. In an M&A scenario, strategic value >> current market cap.

Consolidation/M&A optionality

POSITIVE

Following Abbott/EXAS deal (Mar 2026, $21B at 6x sales), MYGN at $273M mcap is an obvious consolidator target for Roche, Thermo Fisher, Danaher or a private equity buyout at 1.5–2x sales = $8–10/share strategic value.

public

SWOT

Strengths

+Deep BRCA IP + 30-year hereditary cancer franchise
+High gross margin 66–68% preserves recovery optionality
+300k+ ordering physician relationships
+Real revenue base $770M+, not a going concern

Weaknesses

−Revenue shrinking −11% YoY Q2'26 (was growing +7% FY25)
−Adj EBITDA guidance suspended = no visibility
−Negative FCF and net debt $95M limit strategic options
−Missed MRD wave (dominated by NTRA Signatera)

Opportunities

→M&A takeout at 1.5–2x sales = $8–10/share (post-EXAS)
→Prolaris tumor profiling growth (+12% Q4'25)
→Payer friction proves cyclical → revenue stabilization Q4'26
→GeneSight alternate payer coverage recovery

Threats

!Further payer denial escalation → FY27 revenue <$700M
!Additional guidance cut Q3/Q4 2026 = 52W-low retest
!Class action re-filing over pre-cut guidance
!Equity raise via S-3 shelf if cash deteriorates further

Bull case (20%)

Payer friction proves cyclical, resolves by Q4'26

Revenue stabilizes $780M, EBITDA guide reinstated

Multiple re-rates 0.35x → 1.1x

Strategic acquirer emerges at $8–10 takeout

Base case (45%)

Payer friction chronic but bounded

FY26 lands $780M, marginal negative EBITDA

Multiple drifts 0.35x → 0.65x

Slow rehabilitation over 12+ months

Bear case (35%)

Another guidance cut Q3/Q4 2026

FY27 revenue drops to $700M

Equity raise via S-3 shelf dilutes 20%+

Multiple compresses to 0.4x → $1.50–2.00

2026-10-29earnings

Q3 2026 Earnings — critical stabilization test

short-termImpact: HighDirection: Binary

First earnings after the guidance cut. Market watches whether Q3 revenue stabilizes sequentially or drops further. Reinstatement of adj EBITDA guidance would be a major positive signal.

2026-10-15regulatory

Securities class action filing / lead plaintiff deadline

short-termImpact: MediumDirection: Bearish

Holzer & Holzer investigation initiated Jun 2025; post-Aug 2 guidance cut typically triggers formal complaints. Estimated settlement window $30–100M.

2026-12-31capital_markets

S-3 shelf utilization — potential capital raise

medium-termImpact: HighDirection: Bearish

S-3 on file. If cash falls under $80M by year-end and FCF stays negative, an equity raise becomes probable — dilutive at depressed prices.

2027-02-25guidance

FY27 Revenue Guidance + Adj EBITDA reinstatement?

medium-termImpact: HighDirection: Binary

First FY27 guide sets the reset baseline. Return of adj EBITDA guidance would be the single most bullish reinstatement signal.

2026-11-30strategic

Board strategic review / activist campaign

medium-termImpact: HighDirection: Bullish

At $273M mcap post-dislocation, MYGN is an activist target. Value-unlock scenarios: split hereditary cancer + Prolaris from prenatal + GeneSight, or full sale to Roche/Thermo/Danaher at 1.5–2x sales.

2027-01-13strategic

JP Morgan Healthcare Conf. — investor day

medium-termImpact: MediumDirection: Neutral

First major investor venue post-guidance cut. Management credibility test; presentation quality and Q&A tone will drive sell-side sentiment reset.

2027-01-31operational

Major payer coverage updates (annual cycle)

medium-termImpact: HighDirection: Bullish

Annual payer coverage cycle. Any reinstatement of GeneSight coverage or expansion of hereditary cancer coverage would be a direct revenue driver and stabilization signal.

2026-11-05product

Prolaris tumor profiling volume progression

medium-termImpact: LowDirection: Bullish

Prolaris was +12% growth Q4'25. Continued acceleration would validate the one remaining growth franchise and provide narrative offset to hereditary/prenatal weakness.

{ "verdict_label": {"it": "Giudizio: Cautela — value trap post guidance-cut, no visibilità stabilizzazione", "en": "Verdict: Caution — Post-guidance-cut distressed value, no stabilization visibility"}, "verdict_text": {"it": "MYGN crolla −45% dopo taglio guidance FY26 a $770-790M (da $860-880M) e sospensione guidance EBITDA. A $2.86 il titolo è a 0.35x EV/Sales, ma ricavi in calo −11%, FCF negativo e nessun catalyst chiaro di stabilizzazione. Alto GM (67%) preserva optionality M&A ma il floor non c'è.", "en": "MYGN collapsed −45% after cutting FY26 guidance to $770-790M (from $860-880M) and suspending adj EBITDA guidance. At $2.86 trading at 0.35x EV/Sales, but revenue shrinking −11%, negative FCF and no clear stabilization catalyst. High GM (67%) preserves M&A optionality but no hard floor."}, "bull_points": [ {"it": "GM 67% preserva optionality: recupero fattibile se ricavi stabilizzano $780M", "en": "GM 67% preserves optionality: recovery feasible if revenue stabilizes at $780M"}, {"it": "Target M&A a $273M mcap post-EXAS/Abbott ($21B a 6x sales)", "en": "M&A target at $273M mcap post-EXAS/Abbott ($21B at 6x sales)"}, {"it": "IP BRCA + 300k relazioni medici = base value reale", "en": "BRCA IP + 300k physician relationships = real base value"} ], "bear_points": [ {"it": "Ricavi −11% Q2, guidance EBITDA sospesa: no visibility", "en": "Revenue −11% Q2, adj EBITDA guidance suspended: no visibility"}, {"it": "Payer friction potenzialmente strutturale, non ciclica", "en": "Payer friction possibly structural, not cyclical"}, {"it": "Shelf S-3 attivo: rischio capital raise diluitivo", "en": "S-3 shelf active: dilutive equity raise risk"} ], "risks": [ {"it": "Altro guidance cut Q3/Q4 → retest $1.50-2.00", "en": "Another guidance cut Q3/Q4 → retest $1.50-2.00"}, {"it": "Class action lawsuit dopo sospensione EBITDA", "en": "Class action lawsuit after EBITDA suspension"}, {"it": "NTRA/GH continuano a rubare share nei segmenti chiave", "en": "NTRA/GH continue taking share in key segments"} ] }

Sources & Disclaimer

Data sources: Myriad Genetics Q2 2026 press release / 8-K (SEC EDGAR); Investing.com Q2 2026 slides; Seeking Alpha news (guidance cut); StocksToTrade / TimothySykes (post-cut price action Aug 2, 2026); Nasdaq / Fintel (short interest); Holzer & Holzer investigation (Jun 2025); Bragar Eagel & Squire class-action case archive; peer data (NTRA, GH, EMBC) from Yahoo Finance / Simply Wall St; Abbott/EXAS $21B acquisition closing (Mar 2026). Market data — last verified close 2026-07-31 ($2.86, week −47%, previous close ~$5.37 pre-cut) — cross-checked between Yahoo Finance and multiple news sources. ⚠️ Not investment advice. This is a fluid post-event analysis: the situation could evolve materially within days as analysts refresh models and post-Aug 2 price discovery continues. Verify all numbers before any position sizing.