Playtika owns durable social-casino and casual-game franchises, while Disney Solitaire and direct-to-consumer payments are expanding. Yet the equity sits beneath substantial debt and a remaining SuperPlay earn-out. H1 2026 cash conversion was weak, the dividend is suspended, and litigation plus controlling-shareholder governance constrain the multiple. Our $4.74 base fair value implies 130.1% appreciation from the $2.06 analysis close. No new quarterly operating results have been published since the previous assessment; the wider valuation gap chiefly reflects the lower share price. This is highly sensitive to the multiple and cash conversion: a modest enterprise-value miss can still erase much of the residual equity.
Scenarios are analyst assumptions, not company forecasts. Probability-weighted center is ~$4.09/share. The base is well above spot because the market appears to discount weaker future cash conversion and legal risk more heavily than this peer-based model; these concerns are concentrated in the bear case. Valuation sensitivity at unchanged $750M EBITDA and June obligations: 4.4x → $2.58/sh.; 5.0x → $3.76/sh.; 5.5x → $4.74/sh.; 5.9x → $5.53/sh.; 6.24x peer median → $6.20/sh. A ±2.0x multiple move shifts value about ±$3.93/sh., so the single-point fair value is not stable. Every 0.5x of $750M EBITDA equals ~$0.98/share; every additional $100M obligation costs ~$0.26/share. The earn-out fair value can change with SuperPlay performance. ⚠️ Not investment advice. Change since the published 14 October 2026 assessment: The base fair value remains $4.74/share (0.0% change). No new quarterly results or updated company guidance have been issued since that assessment. The analysis price fell from $2.19 to $2.06, raising the indicated upside from 116.4% to 130.1%; this is a market-price move, not evidence of improved cash generation. Playtika has now confirmed 5 November 2026 for its Q3 results. The $750M FY2026 adjusted-EBITDA floor, cash conversion, game-level momentum and the $370M SuperPlay earn-out are the main assumptions to retest then.
| Component | Assumption | USD/share |
|---|---|---|
| Core business EV | 5.5x × $750M FY2026E adjusted EBITDA / 381.418M shares | +10.81 |
| Net debt | ($438.5M cash − $2,383.7M debt) / 381.418M shares | −5.10 |
| SuperPlay earn-out | $370.0M remaining fair-value liability / 381.418M shares | −0.97 |
| Incremental dilution | Base uses 381.418M outstanding; no unsupported future share assumption | 0.00 |
| Option / litigation reserve | No speculative deal premium or unquantified legal charge in base | 0.00 |
| FV base case | ($4,125.0M EV − $1,945.2M net debt − $370.0M earn-out) / 381.418M | ≈ $4.74 |
Bar uses a 10% float scale with ChartExchange’s float estimate. PHUKII holds 52.4% and On Chau 21.0% in the 2026 proxy, creating concentrated control. The $550M revolver was undrawn at June; its March 2027 expiry is a liquidity-renewal issue, not $550M funded debt.
| Item | FY2024 actual | FY2025 actual | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | FY2026 company guidance | FY2027 vendor consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 2,549.3 | 2,755.4 | 1,402.0 | 1,475.8 | 2,750–2,850 | 2,788 |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | 757.7 | 753.2 | 334.3 | 331.3 | 750–790 | 800.6 |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 29.7% | 27.3% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 27.3% at guide low | 28.7% |
| GAAP net income ($M) | 162.2 | −206.4 | 63.8 | −9.5 | N/D | N/D |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 396.8 | 481.6 | 119.6 | 15.0 | N/D | N/D |
| DTC revenue ($M) | 694.2 | 814.5 | ~355.1 | 578.7 | N/D | N/D |
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 696.0 | 674.6 | 678.8 | 744.7 | 731.1 |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | 167.0 | 217.5 | 201.4 | 125.2 | 206.1 |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 24.0% | 32.2% | 29.7% | 16.8% | 28.2% |
| GAAP net income ($M) | 33.2 | 39.1 | −309.3 | −57.5 | 48.0 |
| DTC revenue ($M) | 175.9 | 209.3 | 250.1 | 291.8 | 286.9 |
The earnings profile is uneven. Q4 2025's $309.3M GAAP loss was dominated by noncash SuperPlay contingent-consideration remeasurement. Q1 2026 marketing investment compressed adjusted EBITDA margin to 16.8%; Q2 recovered to 28.2% as spending moderated. H1 EBITDA of $331.3M was slightly below the prior year's $334.3M despite 5.3% higher sales.
Cash flow is the harder test: H1 operating cash flow was $51.5M and free cash flow $15.0M. The operating section included $111M of earn-out payment above acquisition-date fair value; the other $350M of the $461M SuperPlay payment was financing cash flow. Adding $111M back illustrates timing sensitivity but does not erase cash paid or the remaining $370M liability. We do not annualize the strong FY2025 $481.6M free cash flow.
The $1.9B face-value first-lien term loan matures in March 2028 and $600M notes in 2029. At June, the first-priority net senior secured leverage ratio was 1.8x versus a 6.25x covenant ceiling. This headroom reduces immediate covenant risk but does not remove refinancing, interest-cost or earn-out cash demands.
Business model — mobile games and direct payments
Disney Solitaire $142.4M Q2 2026; +288.6% YoY growing High-growth casual puzzle title acquired with SuperPlay. Q2 sequential growth of 15.5% despite lower marketing supports product-market fit; retention and acquisition cost must remain economical. Bingo Blitz $145.1M Q2 2026; −9.5% YoY declining Mature social-bingo franchise and substantial profit source. Its decline complicates the portfolio growth story; retention, monetization and legal treatment of social-casino mechanics matter. June's Journey $74.7M Q2 2026; +8.1% YoY growing Narrative hidden-object title acquired with Wooga. It adds genre diversity and recurring in-app-purchase revenue, though its scale is smaller than the two titles above.
The three title figures are reported Q2 revenue, not segment EBITDA and not a complete decomposition of $731.1M group sales. Average daily active users fell to 8.0M from 8.8M a year earlier, while payer conversion improved to 4.6% from 4.3% and revenue per daily active user rose to $1.01 from $0.87. Better monetization is offsetting a smaller user base; the durability of that trade-off is central to the thesis.
DTC revenue reached $286.9M, 39.2% of Q2 group revenue, up 63.1% year on year but down 1.7% sequentially. Direct sales may reduce platform fees, but Playtika has not disclosed a separately audited DTC EBITDA figure. Our model applies one multiple to consolidated adjusted EBITDA and assigns no separate DTC premium.
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
SWOT analysis
- +$2.76B FY2025 revenue across a diversified mobile portfolio.
- +Q2 adjusted EBITDA recovered to 28.2% margin.
- +Disney Solitaire growth and June’s Journey resilience.
- +DTC reached 39.2% of Q2 group revenue.
- −$2.315B combined net debt and earn-out claim.
- −Only $15M H1 2026 free cash flow.
- −Bingo Blitz Q2 revenue fell 9.5% year on year.
- −Dividend suspension and share-count increase.
- →Lower marketing intensity could restore margins.
- →DTC monetization might translate into stronger cash conversion.
- →Strategic review could lead to asset sales or a transaction.
- →Debt and earn-out paydown would increase equity value.
- !Adverse social-casino regulation or litigation outcome.
- !Consumer weakness and declining daily active users.
- !SuperPlay earn-out remeasurement or higher cash payout.
- !Refinancing friction before 2027 and 2028 deadlines.
Summary by assessment area
- Q2 revenue +5.0% YoY and adjusted EBITDA +23.4% YoY.
- Disney Solitaire and DTC growth offset mature-title erosion.
- Monitor DAUs, payer conversion and marketing efficiency together.
- $1.945B net debt plus $370M earn-out.
- H1 cash generation was pressured; FY2025 FCF is not a safe run rate.
- Covenant headroom exists, but March 2027 revolver renewal matters.
- $4.74 base fair value versus $2.06 analysis close: +130.1%; model uncertainty is high.
- Bear center $0.45 and bull center $7.88 show equity sensitivity.
- A 0.5x EBITDA multiple move shifts value ~$0.98/share.
Sources: S&P Global analyst-target snapshot · MarketScreener 2027 estimates · Boursorama/FactSet 2027 estimates · FY2025 results · Q3 2025 results · Q1 2026 results · Q2 2026 results · Q2 2026 10-Q · 2026 proxy · strategic review announcement · prior price history · 22 Oct price history · short interest · analyst targets · DDI peer ratios · Stillfront peer ratios · MTG peer ratios · confirmed Q3 results date . Issuer and filing figures are as of 30 June 2026 or the stated reporting period; 2027 projections are vendor consensus, not issuer guidance; PLTK close is 22 October 2026 and peer vendor pages were checked 14 October 2026 (underlying timestamps vary). Market data — last verified close 2026-10-22: PLTK ~$2.06, market cap ~$785.7M, 52W range $2.04–$4.42, 381.418M shares outstanding. Short interest: 7.324M shares at 2026-09-30, 9.42% of ChartExchange float (1.92% of shares outstanding). The $2.06 close matches StockVS and StockScan; ChartExchange displayed $2.05 at 15:59:56 EDT, a one-cent feed difference. Scenario multiples, probabilities and revenue cross-check assumptions are analyst estimates. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.