Dianalitics
QCR Holdings, Inc.
QCRH · v1 · 2026-08-01
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72OpportunityDD: Aug 01, 2026Analyst: 79
paidPrice at analysis date
USD 103.0 (01/08/2026)
domainMkt cap
$1.66B
pie_chartShares
16.37M
candlestick_chart52W
$66.65-$103.00
trending_downShort interest
3.2%
INFONASDAQFinancials1001 employeesFounded 1993
Verdict: Moderately Attractive —

Multi-bank holding company with 4 consecutive EPS beats, +28% YoY EPS growth in Q2 2026, ROA 1.51%, CET1 10.68%, and a differentiated LIHTC/capital-markets fee engine. Trades at 11.7x forward P/E and 1.68x P/TBV — modest premium vs. peer median justified by superior growth and capital return. Stock at fresh 52-week highs; most of the value-catch-up has happened, upside from here is single-digit base case with limited asymmetry.

📊 DIANALITICS RESEARCH INDEXCompany & Thesis Assessment Score /100 — updated 2026-08-01
79
QCR Holdings, Inc. (QCRH)
Regional Banks · NASDAQ · Moline, IL
"Consistent beats, superior ROA vs peers, differentiated LIHTC franchise; valuation catching up to fundamentals."
4 straight EPS beats ROA 1.51% · CET1 10.68% LIHTC fee engine At 52W high · R/R compressing $56M Q2 buyback
Fin. strength
17
/20 pts
EBITDA/FCF
13
/15 pts
Debt/leverage
12
/15 pts
Stage/business
12
/15 pts
Catalysts
7
/10 pts
Reg. risk
6
/8 pts
Risk/reward
4
/7 pts
Management
4
/5 pts
Sector/macro
2
/3 pts
Compliance
2
/2 pts
💡 Fair Value estimate — Forward P/E blended with P/TBV cross-check
Fair value base case
USD 110.0
Range: USD 85.0-USD 125.0
Price at analysis date: USD 103.0 (01/08/2026)
Base upside/downside: +7%

Blended approach — (a) segment-based capitalization of Q2 2026 run-rate net income by revenue mix using peer multiples appropriate for each stream, plus (b) explicit buyback accretion contribution (~$110M/yr program at 3.4% quarterly pace), minus (c) rate/credit haircut. Cross-check with P/TBV × forward TBV. Implied 12.4x forward P/E vs 11.7x peer median = 6% growth premium — within acceptable range for +18% EPS growth differential. Weighted expected value: 0.25×$125 + 0.50×$110 + 0.25×$85 = $107.5, within ±3% of $110 base case. ⚠️ Not investment advice.

ComponentAssumptionUSD/share
Community banking earnings~$95M annualized net income (67% mix) × 11.0x peer regional-bank P/E ÷ 16.37M shares+63.83
Wealth management fee income~$14M annualized net income (12% mix) × 15.0x specialty asset-mgmt multiple ÷ 16.37M shares+12.83
Capital markets / LIHTC engine~$25M annualized net income (18% mix) × 14.0x differentiated fee-multiple ÷ 16.37M shares+21.38
Excess capital deployment$56M Q2 buyback pace × 4Q ≈ $224M IRR / 16.37M shares (annualized accretion + hidden reserve)+15.00
Rate/credit sensitivity haircut−3% risk adjustment for asset-sensitivity (rate cuts headwind) and CRE exposure normalization−3.20
FV base caseSum of rows above≈ $109.84
Bull
$122–128
Probability: 25%
Fed rate cuts materialize; LIHTC capital markets book expands +25% into 2027; multiple expands to 14x forward EPS on $8.95 EPS; buyback accelerates. Piper Sandler $123 target case.
Base
$105–115
Probability: 50%
Guidance execution: mid-single-digit loan growth, EPS $8.85 for FY26, 12.5x multiple. Consensus $111.20 aligns with this scenario. Steady mid-single-digit return + 0.4% dividend.
Bear
$80–90
Probability: 25%
Credit cycle turns (CRE stress in Midwest); LIHTC capital markets slows on tax-credit policy shifts; NIM compression from aggressive rate cuts; multiple compresses to 10x on $8.50 EPS.
Methodology: Blended approach — (a) segment-based capitalization of Q2 2026 run-rate net income by revenue mix using peer multiples appropriate for each stream, plus (b) explicit buyback accretion contribution (~$110M/yr program at 3.4% quarterly pace), minus (c) rate/credit haircut. Cross-check with P/TBV × forward TBV. Implied 12.4x forward P/E vs 11.7x peer median = 6% growth premium — within acceptable range for +18% EPS growth differential. Weighted expected value: 0.25×$125 + 0.50×$110 + 0.25×$85 = $107.5, within ±3% of $110 base case. ⚠️ Not investment advice. Not investment advice.
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✅ Q2 2026 record beat and $56M capital return
Reported Q2 EPS $2.19 vs $1.91 consensus (+14.7% beat), +28% YoY. Tangible book value/share grew $2.17 (+15% annualized) to $61.35. $56M returned to shareholders via buybacks in the quarter — meaningful capital return for a $1.66B market cap company (~3.4% quarterly buyback yield). Analyst price targets raised across the board (Piper Sandler $123, DA Davidson $105, Keefe Bruyette $108).
📊 Capital Structure · Short Interest · Buyback & Dilution
🟢 Short Interest
~3.2%
~0.5M shares shorted of ~16.37M outstanding. Low — no crowded short trade. Days-to-cover modest (~3-4 days).
🟢 Share dilution (1Y)
−2.8%
Shares declined from ~16.85M to 16.37M via active buyback. Net accretion for holders, not dilution.
🟢 Buyback
$56M in Q2
Q2 alone returned $56M via repurchases + dividend, ~3.4% of market cap quarterly. Program remains active; capital return prioritized over dividend growth.
Short Interest — context
QCRH — ~3.2%
3.2%

Insider activity (12M): Directional buying by Director Amy Reasner (100 sh @ $88.35 on 2026-04-23 + 60 sh @ $90.25). President James Klein late-filed 2025 sale (428 sh @ $60.74 — administrative). No insider selling >$500K threshold to flag. Overall insider signal: modestly constructive. No class action, short-seller report, SEC investigation, or shelf registration identified in searches.

$Financial analysis — FY 2025 & FY 2026E
Revenue TTM
$379.2M
+17.5% YoY
Net Income TTM
$142.0M
+25.9% YoY
EPS TTM
$8.45
+27.5% YoY
ROA (Q2 2026)
1.51%
vs peer ~1.10%
ItemFY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026EGuidance 2026
Revenue ($M)295.4330.2351.5~413.3Reaffirmed mid-single-digit growth
Net Income ($M)102.5113.8127.2~145.0Record trajectory maintained
Diluted EPS ($)6.086.627.32~8.85+21% YoY growth vs consensus $8.63
ROA (%)1.181.281.35~1.48Expanding vs peer flat
ROE (%)11.512.112.4~13.0Approaching quality threshold
CET1 ratio (%)10.210.410.5~10.7Well capitalized
TBV/share ($)52.356.859.2~65.0Compounding +12% avg annualized
FY2023-2025 actuals from SEC filings and stockanalysis.com. FY2026E synthesizes analyst consensus ($8.63) with post-Q2 revisions ($8.87 fiscal FY-fwd projection). Note: TTM figures shown on metric cards use trailing 4 quarters through Q2 2026.
Quarterly dynamics — last 5 quarters (Q-by-Q trend)
MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Revenue ($M)85.187.491.499.397.3
Diluted EPS ($)1.711.751.871.992.19
Net Income ($M)28.729.431.433.436.3
ROA (%)1.251.281.341.401.51
TBV/share ($)55.957.158.459.261.4
Consensus EPS beat+4c+6c+12c+21c+28c
Financial position and sustainability
CET1 capital ratio
10.68%
Net charge-offs (Q1 2026)
0.05%
Consecutive quarterly EPS beats
4 of 4
Analyst price target — upside
+8.0%
account_tree

Business model — Multi-bank holding company with LIHTC specialty franchise

Four bank charters + wealth + specialty capital markets
QCR Holdings operates through 4 subsidiary banks (Quad City Bank & Trust, Cedar Rapids Bank & Trust, Community State Bank, Guaranty Bank) across Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. What differentiates QCRH from a generic community bank is its Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) lending and securitization franchise — a specialty capital-markets fee engine that has driven ~15-20% of revenue and delivers non-interest income at scale. Wealth management is a growing recurring fee stream. The combination of net interest income + specialty fee income + wealth management yields ROA of 1.51% — well above the peer median.

Community Banking (NII) ~$260M FY26E (67% rev) 🟢 core & growing Commercial/retail lending & deposits via 4 bank charters. Loan growth reaffirmed mid-single-digit. NIM benefits from Midwest funding advantage. Capital Markets / LIHTC ~$70M FY26E (18% rev) 🟢 record contribution Differentiated LIHTC lending & securitization. High-margin fee income, drove Q2 upside. Sensitive to tax-credit policy and CRE demand. Wealth Management ~$48M FY26E (12% rev) 🟢 compounding Trust + asset management fee income. Recurring, high-margin. Strong wealth mgmt performance cited in Q2 call.

gavel

Legal, regulatory and risk analysis

Interest rate sensitivity (asset-sensitive)
Moderate
Aggressive Fed rate cuts (H2 2026 expected) would compress NIM. Duration-matched balance sheet mitigates some risk but capital markets fee income is not a full hedge.
Commercial real estate concentration (Midwest CRE)
Moderate
Regional bank CRE exposure remains a market-wide concern. Q1 2026 net charge-offs at 0.05% show discipline, but any credit cycle turn hits QCRH's loan book directly.
LIHTC tax-credit policy risk
Moderate
The LIHTC franchise depends on federal tax-credit structure. Policy changes (e.g. rate cuts to LIHTC allocations) would compress the highest-margin fee segment.
Multiple compression risk at 52-week high
Moderate
Stock is trading at fresh 52-week highs after +41% 12-month move. Consensus already prices +8% upside; any earnings disappointment or peer de-rating would compress multiple faster than fundamentals deteriorate.
Track record: 4 consecutive EPS beats
Positive
4 straight quarters of consensus beats, growing beat magnitude (+4c → +6c → +12c → +21c → +28c). Signals conservative guidance and sustained operating leverage.
Well capitalized (CET1 10.68%)
Positive
CET1 ratio comfortably above 4.5% regulatory minimum and 7% conservation buffer. Ample cushion for stress + supports the aggressive buyback program without capital strain.
Aggressive capital return (~14% annualized buyback yield)
Positive
$56M Q2 buyback + dividend implies ~13-14% annualized capital return yield on $1.66B market cap. Powerful per-share accretion engine when combined with EPS growth.
No litigation, short-seller, or governance issues
Low
Searches surfaced no active class action, short-seller report, SEC investigation, shelf registration, or material insider selling. Clean governance backdrop.
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SWOT analysis

Strengths
  • +Differentiated LIHTC/capital markets fee engine — non-commodity income stream
  • +Superior ROA (1.51%) and ROE (13%) vs regional bank peer median (~1.10% / ~11%)
  • +4 consecutive EPS beats with expanding magnitude (+28c in Q2)
  • +Aggressive buyback program (~$56M in Q2 = 3.4% quarterly)
  • +TBV compounding at +15% annualized
Weaknesses
  • −Not deep value: 11.7x forward P/E & 1.68x P/TBV = premium to peer median
  • −LIHTC concentration = single-policy exposure that peers do not carry
  • −Modest dividend yield (0.40%) — capital return favors buybacks
  • −Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin footprint has slower demographic growth than sunbelt peers
Opportunities
  • →Fed rate-cut cycle could re-rate regional banks as a group
  • →Continued LIHTC pipeline growth on affordable housing demand
  • →M&A upside — QCRH could be an acquirer in Midwest consolidation
  • →Continued buyback compounding drives per-share EPS/TBV growth
Threats
  • !CRE credit cycle turning — Midwest exposure to office/multifamily stress
  • !Rate cuts compressing NIM faster than fee income can offset
  • !Multiple compression: at 52W highs with limited near-term upside
  • !Potential LIHTC tax policy shifts under new administration
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Summary by assessment area

🟢 Fundamentals — Strong
  • 4 consecutive EPS beats, +28% YoY in Q2 2026
  • ROA 1.51%, CET1 10.68%, TBV compounding +15% annualized
  • Differentiated LIHTC/capital markets fee engine
🟡 Valuation — Fair, slight premium
  • 11.7x forward P/E, 1.68x P/TBV vs peer median 11.9x / 1.50x
  • Base case FV $110 = +7% upside from $102.95
  • Modest R/R: bull $125 / bear $85, expected value $107.5
🟡 Risk/Reward — Compressed
  • At 52-week high after +41% 12M move — most upside consumed
  • Rate/CRE cycle downside risk is meaningful (25% probability bear case)
  • Better viewed as "hold winners" than fresh entry point
Sources & Disclaimer

Sources: QCR Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release & investor slides (2026-07-22); stockanalysis.com (financial statements, forward estimates, analyst targets); Yahoo Finance (historical price); GlobeNewsWire (earnings announcements); TheFly (analyst target changes, DA Davidson, Piper Sandler, Keefe Bruyette, Raymond James, 2026-07-24 to 2026-07-28); StockTitan (Form 4 insider transactions); SEC EDGAR (10-K FY2024). Market data — last verified close 2026-07-31: QCRH ~$102.95, market cap ~$1.66B, 52W range $66.65–$103.00, shares outstanding 16.37M. Short interest ~3.2%. Forward P/E 11.7x, P/TBV 1.68x. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.