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59NeutralDD: Jul 18, 2026Analyst: 68
paidPrice at analysis date
USD 94.0 (18/07/2026)
domainMkt cap
$1.35B
pie_chartShares
14.38M
candlestick_chart52W
$61.21-$97.12
trending_downShort interest
2.1%
INFONYSE AmericanFinancials870 employees
Verdict: Moderately Attractive —High-quality community bank ($1.35B mkt cap) with record Q1 2026 (EPS $1.82, +33% YoY, +6.4% vs consensus), 19.8% ROE and pristine credit (NPL 0.74%). Forward P/E 11.8x is reasonable for the quality but the stock has already re-rated ~50% off the 52W low and is trading above the average sell-side target ($88.5) — most of the value gap is closed. The value thesis holds only if Q2 2026 (Jul 22) confirms mid-teens core EPS run-rate ex-insurance sale.
📊 DIANALITICS RESEARCH INDEXCompany & Thesis Assessment
Score /100 — updated 2026-07-18
68
Fin. strength
16
/20 pts
EBITDA/FCF
10
/15 pts
Debt/leverage
12
/15 pts
Stage/business
13
/15 pts
Catalysts
5
/10 pts
Reg. risk
5
/8 pts
Risk/reward
2
/7 pts
Management
4
/5 pts
Sector/macro
2
/3 pts
Compliance
2
/2 pts
💡 Fair Value estimate — Forward P/E on normalized banking EPS · cross-check justified P/TBV
Fair value base case
USD 93.0
Range: USD 75.0-USD 110.0
Price at analysis date: USD 94.0 (18/07/2026)
Base upside/downside: -1%
Base case 12.0x forward P/E on normalized bank-only FY26E EPS $7.75 = $93 (implied multiple identical). Cross-check justified P/TBV via ROE 17% (normalized) and CoE 10% delivers $131 as a bullish anchor. Blended range $75–$110. Weighting reflects VALUE selection factor (base case dominant, symmetric bull/bear). Analyst consensus $88.50 (updated May 2026) marginally below base — sell-side hasn't re-rated ROE upside. ⚠️ Not investment advice.
| Component | Assumption | USD/share |
|---|---|---|
| Core banking earnings power | Normalized FY26E EPS $7.75 × 12.0x fwd P/E (peer median $1–2B community banks) | +93.00 |
| Wealth Management franchise premium | $5B AUM × 1.0% recurring fees × 15x EBIT / 14.38M sh ≈ standalone; residual quality kicker | +3.00 |
| Excess capital vs 10% CET1 target | Total capital 14.78% vs 10% target → ~$70M excess / 14.38M sh | +4.85 |
| Credit reserve buffer (over-provisioned) | ACL 0.90% vs stressed NPL scenario ~0.75%; conservative — small positive | +1.00 |
| NIM compression / rate-cut haircut | 2026 NIM +59 bps YoY (3.57%) tough to sustain if Fed cuts >100 bps: −5% to base earnings | −4.65 |
| Small-cap illiquidity discount | NYSE American, avg daily vol ~80k sh — 4% haircut to equity value | −4.20 |
| FV base case | Exact sum of rows above (93.00 + 3.00 + 4.85 + 1.00 − 4.65 − 4.20) | ≈ $93.00 |
Bull
$105–$115
Probability: 20%
Q2 2026 beat + FY guide raise, NIM holds >3.5% into 2027, buyback pace lifts to $10M/yr, small M&A tuck-in on capital-heavy peer. Multiple to 13.5x.
Base
$85–$100
Probability: 55%
Core EPS ~$7.75, NIM stable, modest loan growth 5–6%. Stock oscillates in a $85–$100 corridor tracking sector.
Bear
$65–$78
Probability: 25%
Fed cuts >150 bps compress NIM to ~3.15%, CRE credit deterioration lifts provisions, EPS regresses to $6.5. Multiple contracts to 10x.
Methodology: Base case 12.0x forward P/E on normalized bank-only FY26E EPS $7.75 = $93 (implied multiple identical). Cross-check justified P/TBV via ROE 17% (normalized) and CoE 10% delivers $131 as a bullish anchor. Blended range $75–$110. Weighting reflects VALUE selection factor (base case dominant, symmetric bull/bear). Analyst consensus $88.50 (updated May 2026) marginally below base — sell-side hasn't re-rated ROE upside. ⚠️ Not investment advice. Not investment advice.
⚠️ Methodology note: TMP's FY 2025 EPS ($11.24) is materially distorted by the Nov 2025 gain on sale of Tompkins Insurance Agencies to Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG). Fair value is anchored to normalized banking-only EPS (~$7.5–$8.0 for FY 2026E) via a peer-median forward P/E multiple, cross-checked with justified P/TBV. TTM P/E of 7.8x is not a meaningful current multiple.
📊 Capital Structure · Short Interest · Buyback & Dilution
🟢 Short Interest
2.1%
~0.30M shares short vs 14.38M outstanding. Days-to-cover ~4. Low — no short thesis, no squeeze setup.
🟡 Share dilution (1Y)
+0.47%
Shares 14.31M → 14.38M. Marginal drift from RSU vesting, offset by ongoing buyback: ~46k sh repurchased Q1 2026 for $3.46M ($75.11 avg).
🟢 Buyback
~$14M
FY 2025 total repurchases + Q1 2026 $3.46M. Insider transactions: no reported sales >$500K in past 12 months. Priority: dividend + selective repurchase.
Short Interest — context
Short interest at 2.1% is well below the regional-bank sector average (~4–5%). Reflects a low-volatility, dividend-oriented shareholder base and low free float on NYSE American. No short-seller reports or class action filings identified in the last 12 months.
Financial analysis — FY 2026E
Revenue TTM
$440.9M
+48.4% YoY (incl. one-off)
Net Income TTM
$167.5M
+127% YoY (insurance sale gain)
ROE (TTM)
19.84%
Normalized ~17% ex one-off
Tier 1 capital ratio
14.78%
Well above 10% "well-capitalized"
| Item | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | Guidance 2026E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 305.5 | 205.2 | 204.5 | 426.4 | ~300 (bank-only, ex-insurance) |
| Net interest income ($M) | 230.3 | 209.5 | 211.1 | 249.7 | ~285 (NIM 3.5%+) |
| Net income ($M) | 85.0 | 9.6 | 70.9 | 161.1 | ~110–120 (core) |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 5.89 | 0.66 | 4.97 | 11.24 | ~7.5–8.0 (core, ex one-off) |
| Dividend / share ($) | 2.31 | 2.40 | 2.44 | 2.51 | ~2.68 (+7%) |
Notes: FY 2023 EPS impacted by a securities-portfolio repositioning charge. FY 2025 net income includes a material one-time gain from the Nov 2025 sale of Tompkins Insurance Agencies to Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG). FY 2026E guidance figures are internal estimates derived from Q1 run-rate and management commentary — not official guidance (TMP does not issue formal quarterly guidance).
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 68.5 | 69.5 | 72.4 | 69.1 | ~92 (incl. insurance sale tail) |
| Net interest margin (%) | 2.98 | 3.09 | 3.23 | 3.42 | 3.57 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 1.37 | 1.42 | 1.65 | 1.78 | 1.82 |
| Loans growth YoY (%) | 2.1 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 6.8 |
Financial position and sustainability
Total capital / RWA
14.78%
NPL / Total loans
0.74%
ACL / Total loans
0.90%
Loan growth YoY
+6.8%
Dividend payout ratio
~35%
account_tree
Business model — Community bank + Wealth Management
Two-segment community bank franchise, upstate New York
Founded 1836. Tompkins operates through the Banking and Wealth Management segments. Community-bank subsidiary Tompkins Community Bank (rebranding to Tompkins Bank & Trust, pending regulatory approval) is the ~90% of revenue driver — commercial & retail deposits, C&I and CRE loans across upstate NY and PA. Wealth Management is a fee-driven overlay with ~$5B AUM. In Nov 2025 the group divested Tompkins Insurance Agencies to Arthur J. Gallagher for a material gain, sharpening the strategic focus on banking + wealth. Q1 2026 delivered a record: NIM expanded 59 bps YoY to 3.57%, loans grew 6.8%, credit metrics improved (NPL 0.74%).
Banking ~$270M NII FY26E (~90% revenue) 🟢 NIM expanding Commercial & consumer banking across NY and PA. Loan growth +6.8% YoY, NIM at 3.57% (+59 bps), NPL 0.74%. Main driver of the 33% Q1 EPS growth. Key risk: NIM compression if Fed accelerates cuts. Wealth Management ~$30M fees FY26E (~10% revenue) 🟢 stable-growing Trust, investment management, financial planning. ~$5B AUM. Fee-based, recurring, low-capital. Franchise premium: differentiates from pure community-bank peers, supports P/TBV multiple.
gavel
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
NIM compression risk
ModerateQ1 2026 NIM 3.57% is a cyclical peak. If the Fed delivers >100 bps of cuts in H2 2026, asset yields reprice faster than deposit costs — 20–40 bps NIM headwind possible, translating into $10–20M annual NII drag.
CRE credit concentration
ModerateRegional/community banks with CRE exposure remain a market concern. TMP's NPL 0.74% and ACL 0.90% are best-in-class today, but reserve coverage is modest vs a stressed cycle. NY upstate office and multifamily bear watching.
Deposit competition / cost
ModerateDeposit costs pressure remains for smaller banks. TMP grew average deposits 5.2% YoY at reasonable cost, but a re-acceleration in rate competition could squeeze the funding advantage that drove the NIM +59 bps.
Small-cap liquidity
ModerateNYSE American listing, avg daily volume ~80k sh, market cap $1.35B. Institutional accumulation is possible but exits can be slow — bid-ask spreads widen in stress. Not an issue for buy-and-hold horizons.
Valuation compression risk
HighStock at $94 is above sell-side average target ($88.5, Piper $87 / Keefe $90). Most of the value-gap has closed after the +50% run off the 52W low ($61.21). Downside if Q2 miss compresses P/E to 10x on $7.75 EPS = $77.5 (−17%).
Well-capitalized balance sheet
PositiveTotal capital ratio 14.78% vs 10% regulatory "well-capitalized" bar. Enough excess to fund organic growth, sustain the dividend and repurchase incrementally. Removes any near-term equity-issuance overhang.
Best-in-class credit metrics
PositiveNPL 0.74% and ACL 0.90% place TMP in the top decile of community banks in H1 2026. Disciplined underwriting historically — even in FY 2023 the earnings hit was securities-portfolio repositioning, not credit.
Clean litigation / governance
PositiveNo class action, no short-seller report, no SEC investigation, no material insider selling in the last 12 months. Piper Sandler "Sm-All Stars" recognition (Dec 2025). Orderly CEO succession at Tompkins Community Bank (Quintana → McKenna, July 2026).
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SWOT analysis
Strengths
- +ROE 19.8% (top quartile among $1–2B community banks)
- +Pristine credit: NPL 0.74%, well-capitalized Tier 1 14.78%
- +NIM +59 bps YoY to 3.57% — best in the peer group
- +2.85% dividend yield with 5-yr consecutive raises
- +190-year old franchise; Piper "Sm-All Star" community bank
Weaknesses
- −Stock already up ~54% off 52W low → most re-rating priced in
- −Small NY upstate geographic footprint limits scale
- −FY 2025 EPS optically inflated by insurance sale — comps are noisy
- −NYSE American listing → thinner liquidity, lower institutional coverage (2 analysts)
Opportunities
- →Q2 2026 earnings (Jul 22) — beat confirms core EPS run-rate ≥$7.75
- →Post-insurance-sale capital deployment: tuck-in M&A or accelerated buyback
- →Small-cap value factor rotation into 2H 2026 (small-caps +19.5% YTD Russell 2000)
- →Rebranding to Tompkins Bank & Trust supports commercial expansion
Threats
- !Fed rate cuts >100 bps compress NIM & earnings power
- !CRE credit cycle turning — office and multifamily upstate NY
- !Analyst target $88.50 = downside anchor if sentiment turns
- !Deposit cost re-acceleration erodes the NIM advantage
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Summary by assessment area
🟢 Fundamentals — Strong
- Record Q1 2026: EPS $1.82 (+33% YoY, +6.4% vs cons.)
- ROE ~17% normalized, NIM 3.57%, NPL 0.74%
- Tier 1 14.78%, ACL 0.90% — clean balance sheet
🟡 Valuation — Fair
- Fwd P/E 11.8x = peer median; no cheap kicker
- FV base $93 ≈ $94 spot; +12% upside bull / −17% bear
- Above consensus target $88.5 — sell-side hasn't re-rated
🔵 Catalysts — Moderate
- Q2 2026 earnings on Jul 22 — binary short-term catalyst
- Capital deployment post-insurance sale (M&A or buyback)
- Small-cap factor tailwind (Russell 2000 +19.5% YTD)
Sources & Disclaimer
Sources: Tompkins Financial Q1 2026 earnings release & 10-Q (SEC EDGAR), stockanalysis.com, Yahoo Finance, Business Wire press releases, Piper Sandler "Sm-All Stars" list, TipRanks / TheFly. Market data — last verified close 2026-07-17: TMP $94.04 (−1.32%), market cap $1.35B, 52W range $61.21–$97.12, shares outstanding 14.38M, short interest ~2.1%, forward P/E 11.82x, dividend yield 2.85%, analyst consensus target $88.50 (Hold; Piper $87 raised May 2026, Keefe $90 raised May 2026). ⚠️ This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.