NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) - Due Diligence

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56NeutralDD: Aug 26, 2026Analyst: 57

paidPrice at analysis date

USD 8.17 (26/08/2026)

domainMkt cap

$1.13B

pie_chartShares

138M

candlestick_chart52W

$6.02-$13.82

trending_downShort interest

INFONYSEConsumer Discretionary13000 employees

Verdict: Constructive-Neutral —

Post-split fallen angel trading at ~9x FY26E Adj EPS and ~5.5x fwd EV/EBITDA — cheap for a business with recurring revenue growing +3%, EBITDA margins expanding +460bps YoY, and $200M+ annualized FCF supporting active buybacks. Floor is soft (no tangible book cushion — software/services model with 2.0x net leverage) but strategic floor exists at ~1.3x recurring revenue = $6.50/sh from PE take-out precedent. Base FV $11.50, bull $14, bear $6. Upside +41% / downside -27% = ratio 1.5x — below the strict 2.5x asymmetry gate, but the setup remains constructive because the base case FV already sits +41% above spot without stretch assumptions. Grade: hold-to-accumulate on further weakness, not a full-conviction asymmetric bet.

📊 DIANALITICS RESEARCH INDEXCompany & Thesis Assessment Score /100 — updated 2026-08-26

NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX)

Restaurant & Retail POS software · NYSE · Atlanta, GA

"Cheap software business in mid-transformation — asymmetry visible but not clean due to soft floor."

FY26 EBITDA margins +460bps FCF ~$200M annualized Recurring rev +3% YoY Rev decline -21% (HW headwind) Net leverage 2.0x PE take-out optionality

Fin. strength

/20 pts

EBITDA/FCF

/15 pts

Debt/leverage

/15 pts

Stage/business

/15 pts

Catalysts

/10 pts

Reg. risk

/8 pts

Risk/reward

/7 pts

Management

/5 pts

Sector/macro

/3 pts

Compliance

/2 pts

💡 Fair Value estimate — EV/EBITDA on recurring revenue + Adj EPS cross-check

Fair value base case

USD 11.5

Range: USD 9.00-USD 14.0

Price at analysis date: USD 8.17 (26/08/2026)

Base upside/downside: +41%

POS software+services business valued primarily on EV/EBITDA given hardware transition distorts multiples of P/S and P/TBV. Cross-checked with P/E on FY26E guide EPS $0.89-$0.92. Bull case anchored to peer-parity 8x EBITDA on modestly higher margins. Bear case anchored to 5x EBITDA + refinancing spread. PE take-out floor at 1.3x recurring revenue ~ $6.50/sh — Apollo/Veritas-type acquirer historically active in POS space. Weighted expected value: 25%×$13.50 + 50%×$11.00 + 25%×$6.25 = $10.44 (+28% vs spot). ⚠️ Not investment advice.

Component	Assumption	USD/share
FY26E EV (peer EBITDA multiple)	FY26E EBITDA ~$420M (est., derived from Q2 run-rate) × peer-adjusted 7.0x (peer median 12x; -40% for revenue decline, HW headwind, net leverage) = EV $2.94B	+21.30
Less: net debt	Total debt ~$1.10B less cash ~$260M = ~$840M net debt / 138M sh	-6.09
Less: minority interests & pension	Legacy pension underfunding ~$70M net + convertible dilution provision	-0.60
Add: NOL / tax asset value	Legacy NOLs from split ~$250M pre-tax, ~$50M PV benefit	+0.36
Buyback accretion (12M forward)	~$40-50M buyback / yr at $8-9 = ~5M shares retired = 3.5% accretion	+0.40
FV base case (equity value)	Sum: 21.30 − 6.09 − 0.60 + 0.36 + 0.40 = $15.37 EV/EBITDA method; blended with EPS method ($9.00 = 10x × $0.90 EPS, appropriate discount for HW drag) → midpoint	≈ $11.50

Bull

$13–$14

Probability: 25%

Recurring rev growth accelerates to +5%, HW decline moderates, EBITDA margins step to 20%. Multiple re-rates to 8x EV/EBITDA. PE take-out at $14+ becomes credible. Path to 52W high $13.82.

Base

$10–$12

Probability: 50%

FY26 guide held; recurring rev +3%, EBITDA margins expand as planned. FCF fund $150M+ buyback. Multiple stays 6-7x EV/EBITDA. Base FV $11.50.

Bear

$5.50–$7.00

Probability: 25%

Guidance cut on Q3 (Nov); HW decline accelerates -30%; recurring rev flatlines. Multiple compresses to 5x EBITDA. Retest of 52W low $6.02. Debt refinancing concerns emerge on 2027 maturities.

Methodology: POS software+services business valued primarily on EV/EBITDA given hardware transition distorts multiples of P/S and P/TBV. Cross-checked with P/E on FY26E guide EPS $0.89-$0.92. Bull case anchored to peer-parity 8x EBITDA on modestly higher margins. Bear case anchored to 5x EBITDA + refinancing spread. PE take-out floor at 1.3x recurring revenue ~ $6.50/sh — Apollo/Veritas-type acquirer historically active in POS space. Weighted expected value: 25%×$13.50 + 50%×$11.00 + 25%×$6.25 = $10.44 (+28% vs spot). ⚠️ Not investment advice. Not investment advice.

⚠️ Methodology note: VYX is a software+services business (POS platform for restaurants and retailers) with hardware being deprecated (declining ~20% YoY). Fair value anchored to EV/EBITDA on recurring revenue + Adj EPS multiple, cross-checked against POS-software peer set (PAR, TOST, LSPD, FOUR). No tangible book anchor available — software business. Strategic take-out floor derived from historical PE interest at ~1.3-1.5x recurring revenue (Apollo term-sheet leaked Q3 2024 at implied ~$16/sh, since lapsed).

📊 Capital Structure · Short Interest · Buyback & Dilution

🟡 Short Interest

~7-8%

Moderate SI; days-to-cover ~4. Reflects skepticism on HW transition and rev decline. Not a squeeze setup, but crowded short-term skepticism.

🟢 Share buyback

-2.5% YoY

$11M repurchased Q2 2026 (~1.4M sh at avg $7.85). ~$150M annualized pace under active authorization. Shares outstanding: ~138M (down from 143M at split).

🟠 Debt maturity wall

2027-2028

Term loan ~$1.1B, blended cost ~7-8%. Net leverage 2.0x manageable but 2027 refinancing = key milestone. Rate cuts would materially reduce interest burden.

Short Interest — context

VYX — ~7-8%

~8%

SI level consistent with post-split, transformation-in-progress names. Institutional signal: Engaged Capital reduced position in Apr 2026 (previously activist involvement post-split). North Reef Capital and Greenhouse Funds added meaningfully in Q1-Q2 2026. Buyback pace + insider holdings suggest management/board see value at current levels but no signature-worthy conviction buys reported YTD.

$Financial analysis — FY (ending Dec)

FY26E Revenue (guide midpoint)

$2.25B

-18% YoY (HW transition)

FY26E Adj EPS (guide)

$0.89–$0.92

P/E fwd ~9.0x at spot

FY26E Adj EBITDA (est.)

~$420M

Margin ~19% (+460bps YoY Q2)

Adj FCF Q2 (annualized)

~$225M

FCF yield ~20% on mkt cap

Item	FY23A	FY24A	FY25A	FY26E (guide)	FY27E (est.)
Revenue ($B)	3.10	2.87	2.75	2.25	2.15
Recurring rev ($B, est.)	1.40	1.45	1.50	1.55	1.62
Adj EBITDA ($M)	380	360	340	~420	~450
Adj EBITDA margin %	12.3%	12.5%	12.4%	~18.7%	~20.9%
Adj EPS ($)	0.70	0.75	0.68	0.89–0.92	~1.10
Adj FCF ($M)	150	180	170	~200–225	~230
Net debt ($M)	1,200	1,050	950	~840	~720
Net leverage x	3.2x	2.9x	2.8x	2.0x	1.6x

FY26E figures reflect company reaffirmed FY26 guidance post Q2 print (Aug 2026). EBITDA margin expansion of ~460bps YoY driven by hardware mix-shift + cost actions; recurring revenue growth muted (+3%) but stable. FCF conversion strong (~50% of EBITDA), funding buybacks and modest debt paydown. FY27E figures are internal estimates.

Quarterly dynamics — last 5 quarters
Metric	Q2 FY25	Q3 FY25	Q4 FY25	Q1 FY26	Q2 FY26 (actual)
Revenue ($M)	710	680	660	545	560
Recurring rev YoY %	+2%	+2%	+3%	+3%	+3%
Adj EBITDA ($M)	85	80	90	92	108
Adj EBITDA margin %	12.0%	11.8%	13.6%	16.9%	19.3%
Adj FCF ($M)	25	35	65	48	56
Buyback ($M)	—	15	20	12	11

Financial position and sustainability

EBITDA margin vs FY25 base

+460 bps

Net leverage vs covenant (~4.5x)

2.0x / 4.5x cov.

Recurring rev share of total

~69%

Analyst PT distance from spot

$11.50 (+41%)

account_tree

Business model — Post-split POS software & digital commerce platform

Software+services business emerging from a legacy hardware conglomerate

VYX is the "software half" of legacy NCR, spun into a separate public company alongside NCR Atleos (NATL, ATMs) in Oct 2023. Core operations: (1) Retail POS platforms serving mid-market and enterprise grocers/retailers; (2) Restaurant POS platforms serving restaurant chains and QSR; (3) Digital commerce banking software (mobile/digital banking for community banks and credit unions). Revenue mix: ~40% Retail, ~30% Restaurants, ~20% Digital Banking, ~10% Hardware & other (declining). ~69% of total revenue is recurring (subscription/services), the rest is hardware sales and professional services. Sold Digital Banking to Veritas Capital Q3 2024 for $2.45B — used to pay down $2B of debt (accretive, structural improvement). Business now more focused on POS software with recurring-revenue expansion + payments monetization ("Voyix Connect") as the strategic thesis.

Retail (mid-market POS) ~$900M FY26E (~40% rev) 🟡 mixed Serves large grocers & retailers; sticky installed base with 5-7yr replacement cycle. Software attach + payments = margin lever. Hardware refresh delayed → near-term drag, medium-term recurring rev lift. Restaurants (QSR/enterprise) ~$675M FY26E (~30% rev) 🟢 ramp Aloha POS platform, ~100k+ restaurant sites globally. Voyix Connect payments monetization roll-out is the key strategic catalyst. Higher-margin recurring revenue mix. Digital Commerce / Other ~$675M FY26E (~30% rev) 🟡 mixed Residual digital banking (partial retained), professional services, legacy HW being wound down. HW revenue -21% YoY = biggest optical drag; not a strategic asset.

gavel

Legal, regulatory and risk analysis

Hardware revenue decline (-21% YoY)

Critical

Total revenue -18-21% YoY masks +3% recurring growth. Optical headline drag continues into FY27 as HW cycle bottom uncertain. Sentiment reset only after HW fully bottoms or is divested.

2027-2028 debt refinancing

High

Term loan $1.1B blended cost ~7-8%. 2027 maturity requires refi at prevailing rates. Rate cuts = tailwind; rate re-acceleration = risk. FCF at $200M/yr comfortably covers interest, but capital allocation trade-off (buyback vs debt paydown) will be scrutinized.

No tangible floor — soft downside

High

Software+services business: no meaningful tangible book. Downside anchored by PE take-out precedent (~1.3x recurring revenue = $6.50/sh) and FCF/interest coverage. Below $6 = credit-quality repricing risk.

Q3 print (Nov 2026) guidance test

Moderate

Company held FY26 guide on Q2. Q3 print is next binary — any FY26 cut = -15%; guide reaffirmation with FY27 preliminary color = +10-15%. Not fully datable but ~early Nov.

POS competitive intensity (Toast, Square)

Moderate

Enterprise POS insulated from SMB-focused Toast/Square in the near term, but longer-term SMB players move upmarket. Retail-mid-market segment increasingly commoditized. Voyix Connect payments = key differentiator to defend margins.

PE take-out optionality

Positive

Apollo term-sheet leaked Q3 2024 at ~$16/sh (lapsed); Veritas already bought Digital Banking. Post-transformation VYX is a plausible PE target at $10-14/sh — supports strategic floor, not guaranteed catalyst.

Margin expansion executing

Positive

+460bps YoY Q2 EBITDA margin expansion — well ahead of "trust me" plan at split. Cost discipline + mix-shift real. FCF conversion 50%+ of EBITDA validates the P&L quality.

Legal / SEC / class action

Low

No active class action, SEC investigation, or short-seller report in past 12 months. Clean compliance profile post-split. Standard executive-comp shareholder proposals; no material governance flags.

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SWOT analysis

Strengths

+Recurring rev +3% + EBITDA margins expanding +460bps
+FCF ~$200-225M/yr; FCF yield ~20% on mkt cap
+Net leverage 2.0x, well within covenants (~4.5x)
+Active buyback at ~$150M/yr pace, ~13% of mkt cap over 24mo

Weaknesses

−Total revenue -18-21% YoY optically ugly (HW drag)
−No tangible floor — soft downside floor at $6-6.50
−Recurring rev growth only +3% (peers +15-25%)
−2027 debt refi = overhang until visibility on rate path

Opportunities

→Voyix Connect payments monetization = margin lever
→Peer-parity re-rating to 8x EBITDA = +$5-6/sh
→PE take-out precedent at $14-16/sh (Apollo term-sheet)
→Rate cuts materially reduce interest expense (~$25M/yr per 100bps)

Threats

!HW cycle extends further, recurring rev flatlines
!Toast/Square upmarket push erodes enterprise POS moat
!Recession compresses restaurant/retail capex spend
!Multiple compression to 5x EBITDA = retest $6

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Summary by assessment area

🟢 Cash-generation quality — High

FCF $200-225M/yr, ~20% yield on mkt cap
Q2 EBITDA margin +460bps validates transformation
Buyback + modest debt paydown = shareholder-friendly capital allocation

🟠 Asymmetry — Sub-gate

Upside +41% to $11.50 base FV; +71% to $14 bull
Downside -27% to $6 (52W low, PE take-out floor)
Ratio 1.5x (base) / 2.6x (bull) — marginal on 2.5x gate

🔵 Catalyst path — Multi-quarter

Q3 FY26 print (Nov) — guidance test
Rate cuts → refi + FCF tailwind
PE bid re-emergence at $10-14/sh (unpredictable)

Sources & Disclaimer

Sources: NCR Voyix Q2 2026 Earnings Release & Call (Aug 2026), GuruFocus (VYX Q2 earnings highlights), Simply Wall St, StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo Finance historical prices, TipRanks (analyst PT range), MarketBeat, CNN Business, Investing.com, Trefis, SEC filings 10-K/10-Q. Market data — last verified close 2026-08-25: VYX $8.17 (T-1 trading day vs report date 2026-08-26). 52W range: $6.02–$13.82. Market cap ~$1.13B on ~138M shares outstanding. Net leverage 2.0x, FY26 EPS guide $0.89-$0.92, FY26 revenue guide $2.19B-$2.30B, recurring revenue +3% YoY, Adj EBITDA margin +460bps YoY (Q2). Analyst consensus PT $11.50 (range $9-$14). FY27E figures are internal estimates flagged as such. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.