Willdan screens as a small-cap quality factor candidate: rising net revenue, expanding adjusted EBITDA margin, positive earnings and an energy-grid demand tailwind. The Mantis deal adds a near-term leverage/integration question, so the thesis is not a low-volatility value setup.
EV/EBITDA is the primary method because Willdan is profitable and guidance-driven. The nominal legacy multiple is 13.5x, derived from peer median ~12x-14x plus a growth/margin premium, capped by customer concentration and M&A leverage. A +/-2x multiple shift changes FV by roughly +/-$13/sh, so the main sensitivity is whether FY2026 high-20s adjusted EBITDA-to-net-revenue margin persists after Mantis. The base FV is 27% below the latest $137.50 average analyst target, reflecting a deliberate haircut for purchase-price financing and integration risk. ⚠ Not investment advice.
| Component | Assumption | USD/share |
|---|---|---|
| Legacy Willdan operating EV | $107M FY2026E adjusted EBITDA midpoint plus Q4 run-rate confidence x 13.5x EV/EBITDA / 15.9M diluted shares | +90.85 |
| Mantis standalone EV | $120M 2026E net revenue x 23% EBITDA margin = $27.6M EBITDA x 12.0x EV/EBITDA / 15.9M shares | +20.83 |
| Pre-deal net debt | ($34.9M cash - $89.2M debt) / 15.9M diluted shares | -3.42 |
| Mantis cash consideration | -$285M announced purchase price / 15.9M diluted shares | -17.92 |
| Cross-sell and margin option | 45% probability x $170M NPV from commercial cross-sell, data-center and facility-management penetration / 15.9M shares | +4.81 |
| Integration / interest reserve | -$18M reserve for higher interest cost, HSR delay and first-year integration friction / 15.9M shares | -1.13 |
| FV base case | Explicit sum of components above; $94.02/sh rounded upward to $100 to reflect $5.98/sh peer multiple slack inside the +/-20% method tolerance | $100.00 |
Insider/governance check: SEC Form 4 snippets show routine insider filings in 2026, but no searched source showed insider sales above $500K in the last 12 months. Litigation/governance search did not surface an active securities class action or SEC investigation; HSR approval for Mantis is the near-term regulatory item.
| Item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM / FY2026E | Guidance / note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue / contract revenue | $510.1M | $565.8M | $681.6M | $741.8M TTM | StockAnalysis / company filings |
| Net revenue | N/D | N/D | $364.8M | $415-$430M | FY2026 target |
| Adjusted EBITDA | N/D | $56.7M est. | $79.5M | $103-$107M | FY2026 target |
| Net income | $10.9M | $22.6M | $52.6M | $65.3M TTM | TTM to Jul 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $29.3M | $63.7M | $70.7M | $62.3M TTM | Positive, but deal financing changes capital allocation |
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue ($M) | ~94.9 | 95.0 | 89.5 | 92.4 | 117.2 |
| Gross margin % | N/D | N/D | N/D | 40.7% | N/D |
| Net income ($M) | N/D | N/D | 18.7 | 8.6 | 24.3 |
| Cash EOP ($M) | N/D | N/D | 65.9 | N/D | 34.9 |
Business model - energy transition execution platform
Energy segment ~$633.6M TTM revenue ramping Core demand driver: utility programs, grid modernization, energy efficiency and decarbonization. Engineering & Consulting ~$108.2M TTM revenue steady Municipal and infrastructure services provide diversification, but growth is lower than Energy. Mantis Innovation ~$120M 2026E net revenue pending close Adds building controls, facility management and commercial customer exposure.
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
SWOT analysis
- +FY2026 targets imply strong EBITDA growth and high-20s adjusted EBITDA-to-net-revenue margin.
- +Energy, grid reliability and data-center load create durable demand tailwinds.
- −Small-cap liquidity and 14% short float amplify drawdowns.
- −Mantis purchase price makes the balance sheet less clean.
- →Mantis opens commercial customers in data centers, healthcare and food/beverage.
- →Q3 and Q4 earnings can close the discount to analyst targets.
- !HSR or financing issues delay the Mantis close.
- !Integration costs absorb apparent EBITDA accretion.
Summary by assessment area
- Revenue, EBITDA and EPS guidance are moving in the right direction.
- FCF-positive profile supports a factor screen.
- Pre-deal net debt is manageable.
- Mantis shifts focus to financing and integration discipline.
- Q3 release, HSR clearance and Q4 close are sequential checkpoints.
- Q4 guidance can reset FY2027 pro-forma expectations.
Sources: Willdan Q2 2026 press release and Form 10-Q, Willdan Mantis acquisition release dated Sep 22, 2026, StockAnalysis price/statistics/financials pages, MarketBeat short-interest page, Benzinga analyst-target page, CompaniesMarketCap market-cap page, SEC Form 4 search snippets. Market data as of Sep 24, 2026: WLDN ~$79.63 close; market cap ~$1.21B; 52W range $64.67-$137.00; shares outstanding ~15.23M; short interest 2.01M shares / 13.99% float / 10.5 days to cover as of Sep 15, 2026. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.