XFAB is selected by the ASIMMETRIA screen because the equity trades below tangible book value, near a stressed asset floor, while Q3 results on 2026-10-29 and late-2026 cost savings provide dated recovery checks. The due diligence conclusion is independent from the screen: the base case is attractive, but still depends on automotive demand normalization and utilization recovery.
The implied core multiple is 2.05x FY26E revenue, below the peer range and intentionally far below TSEM/UMC because XFAB is smaller, more cyclical and currently under-earning. Tangible-book cross-check at 1.25x June 2026 TBV gives about EUR 8.63 per share, 9.8% below the base FV and inside the 25% sanity band. EBITDA cross-check using $170M normalized EBITDA x 8.5x less net debt gives about EUR 7.60, highlighting sensitivity to utilization. A +/-0.5x revenue multiple changes FV by about +/-EUR 2.80 per share, so the case is highly multiple-sensitive. ⚠ Not investment advice.
| Component | Assumption | $/share |
|---|---|---|
| Core analog foundry EV | $810M FY26E revenue x 2.05x EV/Revenue = $1.661B EV / 130.63M shares / 1.14 USD/EUR | +11.16 |
| Net debt | ($312.3M net debt at 2026-06-30) / 130.63M shares / 1.14 USD/EUR | -2.10 |
| Cost-saving run-rate | $6M quarterly saving by Q4 2026 x 3.5x after-tax NPV multiple x 70% probability / 130.63M shares / 1.14 | +0.20 |
| Data-center and photonics option | 15% probability x $300M long-term revenue pool x 1.5x EV/Revenue / 130.63M shares / 1.14 | +0.45 |
| Short/governance technical reserve | 2.73% disclosed active short at AMF plus small public float concentration haircut = EUR 0.14/sh reserve | -0.14 |
| FV base case | Explicit sum of the per-share components above: 11.16 - 2.10 + 0.20 + 0.45 - 0.14 | 9.57 |
The short position is visible but not thesis-defining. The larger risk is that the public float is only 38.7%, so incremental buying or selling can move the stock sharply around earnings.
| Item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | Guidance 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $906M | $816M | $870M | $810M | Q3 $195M-$205M |
| EBITDA | $232M | $189M | $197M | $145M-$155M | Q3 margin 17%-20% |
| EBIT | $108M | $86M | $76M | $20M-$35M | Cost savings by Q4 |
| Net debt / cash | $145M net cash | -$198M net debt | -$286M net debt | -$300M to -$325M | Liquidity preservation |
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 215.3 | 229.4 | 222.3 | 195.6 | 199.8 |
| Gross margin % | 23.2% | 21.1% | 18.7% | 15.7% | 15.3% |
| Net income / loss ($M) | 12.2 | 16.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | -14.8 |
| Cash EOP ($M) | N/D | N/D | 194.3 | 145.0 est. | 163.6 |
Business model - specialty analog foundry
Automotive ~$460M FY26E (57% rev) red soft Largest vertical. Q2 automotive revenue was $116M, down 19% YoY and 5% QoQ as inventory normalization continued. Recovery is the main swing factor. Industrial & medical ~$280M FY26E (35% rev) green resilient Core markets beyond auto provide diversification. Medical revenue was highlighted as growing strongly in Q2 summaries, supporting a less cyclical mix over time. Photonics, SiC, GaN, data center ~$70M FY26E option base blue option Wide-bandgap revenue reached $15.1M in Q1, and management cited data-center design wins in Q2. This remains option value until orders convert.
Legal, regulatory and risk analysis
SWOT analysis
- +Below tangible book despite positive EBITDA.
- +Long-lived specialty technologies in automotive, medical and industrial.
- +Q3 guidance implies sequential stabilization.
- +Cost-saving program has a dated Q4 run-rate target.
- −Net debt has risen materially since 2023.
- −Gross margin is down sharply versus 2025 levels.
- −No buyback support despite depressed valuation.
- −Public float is limited and liquidity can be uneven.
- →Automotive restocking can lift utilization.
- →Photonics, microsystems, SiC and GaN provide optionality.
- →The Erfurt grant supports a higher-value microsystems footprint.
- →Any return toward 1.25x tangible book creates meaningful upside.
- !Longer auto correction could push the stock below book.
- !Further debt-funded capex may pressure equity value.
- !Peer multiples are volatile after a 2026 semiconductor re-rating.
- !Short interest is low but rising in disclosed registers.
Summary by assessment area
- The asset floor is real, but net debt and capex keep it from being a pristine balance-sheet arbitrage.
- Q3 and Q4 margin progression matter more than reported EPS.
- Auto demand and utilization are the dominant swing variables.
- Medical, photonics and wide-bandgap trends reduce but do not remove cyclicality.
- Stressed TBV floor gives only about 4% downside to the screen floor.
- Base fair value implies about 56% upside, with a larger bull case if recovery is confirmed.
Sources: X-FAB investor relations and Q2 2026 release; StockAnalysis XFAB price, history, balance sheet and consensus pages; Investing.com and Bourse Direct historical price pages; ABC Bourse and Teleborsa market data; Shortregister AMF short disclosure; MarketScreener and Trivano insider transaction pages; CompaniesMarketCap market-cap data. Market data as of 2026-09-17 close: XFAB EUR 6.135, market cap about EUR 802M by 130.78M shares, 52-week range EUR 4.09-EUR 15.88. Price row used: XFAB EUR 6.135 close on 2026-09-17, cross-checked against StockAnalysis EUR 6.14, Investing.com EUR 6.14 and Bourse Direct/Teleborsa EUR 6.135; market cap about EUR 802M by price x 130.78M shares; 52-week range EUR 4.09-EUR 15.88; short interest: 2.73% AMF active short from Shortregister and 90,641 OTC XFABF shares short as of 2026-08-31. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.